Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the Turkish lira turning a corner? Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency... 24th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (May) Turkey’s central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 50.00% again today and the statement continued to emphasise the need to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period. While the... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal tightening an important step forwards The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public sector construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's trade ban with Israel: assessing the impact The decision by Turkey last week to suspend all goods trade with Israel until there is a permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza is unlikely to have a major macroeconomic impact in either country... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The weak set of manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe for April suggest that industrial sectors remained a drag on the regional recovery at the start of Q2. In Turkey and Russia, the... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 50.00% at today’s meeting, but the statement continued to strike a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation risks in the economy. While we think the... 25th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Iran strikes, Poland utility prices, IMF forecasts Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week, although there's at least hope that both sides are now trying to avoid any further escalation. For Israel’s economy, the pressing issue is the... 19th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Turkish assets may stay low The risk premia on Turkish assets are now low relative to the past decade or so. We think that will remain the case over the coming quarters, given the positive global risk-on attitude and the ongoing... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) The increase in Turkish inflation, to 68.5% y/y in March, will keep pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates further at its meeting later this month. We maintain our forecast for a 250bp... 3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election: AKP defeat = good news for investors The strong showing for the opposition in Turkey’s local elections on Sunday highlights the extent of voter frustration with high inflation and we think that it should be interpreted as a positive for... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
