Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Turkey’s monthly current account balance rose a little further into surplus in September, but this was mainly due to lower energy imports and an improvement in the gold trade balance. The underlying... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Czech CPI (Oct.) The slowdown in Turkish industry in September means that industrial production growth over Q3 as a whole was a little slower than in Q2. Elsewhere, the weaker-than-expected inflation data from the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) On the face of it, the fall in Turkish inflation last month to a weaker-than-expected 7.6% y/y looks encouraging. However, this masks the fact that core inflation rose to its highest rate in almost a... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets welcome AK victory, economic problems remain The Turkish lira and stock market have rallied following Sunday’s election results, which delivered the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of a small AK party majority in parliament. This has alleviated concerns... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s election Opinion polls suggest that Sunday’s parliamentary election in Turkey will deliver another hung parliament, and immediate attention is likely to concentrate on the likelihood of a coalition being... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC belatedly acknowledges dire inflation outlook The Turkish MPC left its key interest rates unchanged today, but the accompanying press release suggests that the Council may finally have recognised that inflation is set to rise further. This... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for August were, on the face of it, encouraging as the current account deficit fell to its lowest monthly level since 2009. But it’s worth noting that the decline in... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s bank risks The IMF has put the vulnerabilities in the Turkish banking sector – which we have been warning about for several years – back into the spotlight. So far, there have been remarkably few signs of stress... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Aug.) & Hungary CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in August was encouraging, although given the more recent declines in business confidence, it’s not clear whether this will be sustained... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weakening demand coincides with office supply boom in Istanbul Weakening demand growth, an influx of new supply and the sharply depreciating lira are all set to have a negative impact on the office occupier market in Istanbul over the coming years. As such, the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Hungary CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish industrial production in July, coming alongside the fall in August’s manufacturing PMI, reinforces our view that GDP growth is likely to weaken in the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) Economic Sentiment Indicators strengthened in most countries across Emerging Europe this month, suggesting that the region continued to grow at a healthy pace in the third quarter. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC strikes hawkish note, unveils new policy plans The Turkish central bank (CBRT) kept its benchmark rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement struck a hawkish note in response to the latest fall in the lira. In addition, the Bank’s... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Prospect of fresh elections adds to headaches for Turkey Markets have reacted negatively to news that coalition negotiations between the two largest parties in Turkey have broken down and that fresh elections are now highly likely. While we don’t think... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jun.) & Hungary CPI (Jul.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in dollar terms in June, but only because imports dropped by more than exports. Moreover, the financing of the deficit remains a source of vulnerability... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Hungary Industrial Production (Jun.) The faster-than-expected expansion in Turkish industrial production, of 5.5% y/y, in June was, in part, due to a rebound in the auto sector following strikes in May. But overall, this figure adds to... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
