Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Dec.) Turkey’s current account deficit widened in December from November, but that was largely due to seasonal factors and the underlying trend is still one of an improving external position. The upshot is... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in December, of 4.5% y/y, provides further evidence that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was robust. We think the economy may have... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation in January, of 9.6% y/y, was partly driven by administered price hikes and what is likely to be a temporary unwinding of the impact of the decline in global... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: central bank holds rates, damages credibility The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep its key interest rates on hold today, despite pressure on the lira and the deteriorating inflation outlook, adds to the impression that monetary policy... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for November showed that exports remained weak. But, on a more positive note, the current account deficit continued to narrow and the figures also indicated that the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Nov.) Turkish industrial production expanded by a weaker-than-expected 3.5% y/y in November, but the data suggest that growth over Q4 as a whole was strong. 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Turkey CPI (Dec.) December’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provided an early sign that the latest fall in oil prices has hit activity in Russia. Meanwhile, the stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation figure... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank holds fire, plays a dangerous game The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold, when hikes had been widely anticipated, will probably result in renewed concerns that the MPC’s decisions are being swayed by... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 5.4% y/y, may help to alleviate some of the political pressure on the central bank to keep policy loose. This reinforces our view that the central... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) The pick-up in Turkish industrial production growth in October, coming alongside an uptick in the latest business surveys, suggests that the economy continued to perform strongly in Q4. Elsewhere... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a much higher than expected 8.1% y/y in November reinforces our view that the central bank will be forced to hike interest rates over the coming months. 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia’s sanctions on Turkey The economic impact of the Russian sanctions on Turkey announced this weekend will, in general, probably be limited. Our best estimate of the maximum losses to the Turkish economy is around 0.5% of... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes looming in Turkey The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but given the economy’s exposure to Fed tightening and with inflation set to rise even further, rate hikes look likely over the coming... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
