Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing Turkish balance sheet risks from the fall in the lira The plunge in the lira doesn’t, so far, appear to have resulted in significant balance sheet strains, but the rapid rise in private sector FX liabilities suggests that this is still a risk. At the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates On past form, the latest fall in the Turkish lira appears to be sufficiently large to trigger an interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. If the Council doesn’t act, that will only reinforce... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in November reinforces the picture that while the economy probably returned to positive growth at the end of last year, the recovery... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Dec.) The surprisingly sharp rise in Turkish inflation in December, to 8.5% y/y, was due mainly to a jump in food and energy inflation, although the weakness of the lira is also feeding through into higher... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update C&SEE banks in better shape, but concerns about Turkey The health of banking sectors in Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) has improved significantly in recent years. And they are now much less exposed to a fresh eruption of financial stress in the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ending the year with a whimper Most economies in Emerging Europe enjoyed a strong first half of 2016, but regional growth has slowed sharply over the second half of the year. Q3 GDP data showed that the Turkish economy suffered an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey slumps in Q3, growth to stay weaker than most expect The much-sharper-than-expected 1.8% y/y contraction in Turkish GDP in Q3 probably marks the low point of the economy’s coup-induced slump. Nonetheless, the data reinforce our view that most analysts... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The surprise fall in Turkish inflation in November means that, at the margin, it looks less likely that the MPC will follow up last month’s interest rate hike with another this month. Nonetheless... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets outperform after Trump victory Hopes that Donald Trump’s election victory will bring about the end of economic and financial sanctions on Russia caused the country’s financial markets to outperform those in other emerging markets... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost The risks posed by Turkey’s heavy dependence on foreign capital inflows came to a head this month, with the lira falling the furthest of any EM currency in November. This has been driven in part by... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q3 GDP data The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe is likely to make fairly disappointing reading. While growth in Central Europe probably remained strong, we think it still... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Troubles in Turkey’s tourism sector caused the current account deficit to widen even further in September, to around 4.7% of GDP. The wide external shortfall means that the lira is likely to remain... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The recent improvement in Turkish business surveys suggests that the collapse in industrial production in September (shown in data published today) was probably a temporary blip. Nonetheless, today’s... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Central banks continue to add gold to their reserves The latest data show that central banks increased their gold reserves in September. However, year-to-date purchases remain substantially lower than in 2015 as temporary factors, like Venezuela selling... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
