Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC shifts focus to growth The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp was accompanied by a clear shift in the Council’s focus to concerns about the economic slowdown. This provides even more... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.1% y/y, predates July’s coup attempt and we expect growth to be much weaker in the coming quarters. Indeed, the early signs suggest... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production in July provides a clear sign that the coup attempt caused severe disruptions to the economy. And leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI suggest... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August, to 8.0% y/y, is likely to be used as justification by the central bank for further modest interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, we remain of... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The latest batch of PMIs from Emerging Europe suggests that, in aggregate, the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened last month. But the surveys provide further evidence that Turkey’s economy has... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, looks through dire inflation outlook The decision by the Turkish MPC to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp, to 8.5%, provides further evidence that the Council is paying scant regard to its inflation target and more... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth figure for June, of just 1.1% y/y, adds to the evidence that the economy had slowed sharply even before July’s coup attempt. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Turkey’s failed coup adds pressure for retail rents to fall With heightened uncertainty stemming from last month’s failed coup attempt in Turkey, a slowdown in economic growth and further weakness in the lira will put downward pressure on prime Istanbul retail... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt The attempted military coup in Turkey last month doesn’t appear to have triggered a sharp decline in capital inflows, but there are already signs that the hit to confidence will cause domestic demand... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack After the coup... The failed military coup in Turkey and subsequent government backlash have dominated investors’ concerns over the past week and triggered a sell-off in local financial markets. Policymakers have... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish market sell-off into context Turkey’s financial markets have fallen sharply following Friday night’s attempted coup and the subsequent backlash by the government, but the reaction appears relatively mild given the enormity of... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC unfazed by rise in political risk The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp today suggests the Council views the market volatility stemming from Friday night’s attempted coup (and growing concerns... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Turkey’s failed coup The near-term economic impact of Friday night’s attempted coup in Turkey will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.6% y/y, confirms our view that the recent falls in the headline rate were unsustainable. The central bank might still use last... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
