Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) Despite the slowdown in Turkish industrial production growth in May, it still looks like overall GDP growth may have been stronger in Q2 than it was in Q1. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) & Turkey CPI (Jun.) Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe suggest that growth in Central Europe remained robust at the end of Q2, while Turkey’s economy strengthened. Meanwhile, the sharper-than... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime rents in Istanbul have further to fall Prime rents in Istanbul have come under pressure from various headwinds recently. And with the prospect of further rises in vacancy, competition for tenants is likely to see rents move lower still. 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC ends tightening cycle but stays hawkish The Turkish central bank ended the recent tightening cycle today, but high inflation, strong GDP growth (this year at least), and hawkish comments from the MPC, mean that a shift towards interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2017) The much sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish GDP in Q1, of 5.0% y/y, has prompted us to revise up our GDP growth forecast for the year as a whole to 4.3%. At the margin, today’s figures make it... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) The modest decline in Turkish inflation, to 11.7% y/y last month, supports our view that the MPC will end the recent monetary tightening cycle at next week’s meeting. 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production growth in March was a little stronger than expected, but the 2.8% y/y expansion still paints a picture of a slow recovery from last year’s slump. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The further rise in Turkish inflation in April, to 11.9% y/y, probably marks the peak for the headline rate, and it should slowly reverse course in the coming months. As things stand, our sense is... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up inflation fight The Turkish MPC’s surprise move to tighten monetary policy further today via another hike in the late liquidity rate indicates that policymakers may have a greater resolve to tackle the country’s... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: after the referendum… Turkey’s constitutional referendum last Sunday has resulted in a small bounce in local financial markets, with some of the biggest moves coming in short-term local currency bonds. That could be a sign... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) Turkey’s current account deficit remained wide in February, but there are some encouraging signs that the boost to competitiveness from the weak lira may already be having a positive effect. Elsewhere... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
