Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q3 GDP data The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe is likely to make fairly disappointing reading. While growth in Central Europe probably remained strong, we think it still... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Troubles in Turkey’s tourism sector caused the current account deficit to widen even further in September, to around 4.7% of GDP. The wide external shortfall means that the lira is likely to remain... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The recent improvement in Turkish business surveys suggests that the collapse in industrial production in September (shown in data published today) was probably a temporary blip. Nonetheless, today’s... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Central banks continue to add gold to their reserves The latest data show that central banks increased their gold reserves in September. However, year-to-date purchases remain substantially lower than in 2015 as temporary factors, like Venezuela selling... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in the Russian economy resumed at the start of Q4 after a disappointing Q3. The surveys also provided early signs that the Turkish economy is... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political risks take toll on lira and leu Domestic political risks have taken a toll on Emerging Europe’s two worst performing currencies – the Turkish lira and Romanian leu – over the past month. For the lira, in particular, we think... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in lira brings Turkish easing cycle to an end The Turkish MPC didn’t rule out a resumption of its easing cycle following the surprise decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, but for our part we think that further falls in the lira and... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) A decline in tourism receipts caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen further on a 12-month basis in August and ongoing security concerns will keep tourism revenues subdued and the external... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production rebounded in August, after July’s slump, but the bigger picture is that growth weakened over the first two months of Q3 and September’s manufacturing PMI suggests that... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that Russia’s gradual recovery continued at the end of Q3, while growth in Central Europe was relatively strong. Elsewhere, the sharper-than-expected fall in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Turkish downgrade highlights deteriorating investor outlook The decision by Moody’s to downgrade Turkey’s credit rating to non-investment grade comes at a time when investment in Turkish commercial property is struggling. Given a worsening economic and... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkish downgrade puts economic slowdown in spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s sovereign credit rating this month and the loss of the country’s investment grade status caused a small and short-lived sell-off in local financial markets, but perhaps... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
