Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals policy to stay tight for longer The Turkish MPC’s decision to keep all of its key interest rates unchanged today was accompanied by a statement that indicates the Committee is more determined to bring inflation back under control... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Dec.) The decline in Turkish inflation in December, to 11.9% y/y, from 13.0% y/y in November, will take some pressure off the central bank to follow up last month’s interest rate hike with further... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rate hike fails to convince markets The Turkish central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller hike in its late liquidity rate today than markets had anticipated seems to reflect political pressure not to tighten policy substantially. The... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities are mounting (again) The sheer pace of annual GDP growth in Turkey in Q3 was flattered by base effects, but a closer look at the data shows worrying signs that strong growth has contributed to the recent jump in inflation... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to a six-year high of 11.1% y/y, was flattered by the comparison with Q3 of last year, when output was disrupted by the coup attempt. The annual rate of... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a fourteen-year high of 13.0% y/y in November, from 11.9% y/y in October, will undoubtedly alarm policymakers at the central bank. With the government seemingly... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom In this Focus, we highlight the scale of Turkey’s credit boom and warn that the build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is more of a concern than most acknowledge. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 11.9% y/y, was worryingly broad based. There are reasons to think that inflation will begin to fall significantly from December, but in the near-term... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we trust Turkey’s GDP data? The argument made recently that Turkey’s GDP data are being manipulated by the authorities and that the recent rapid growth rates aren’t plausible doesn’t seem to square with other available evidence... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up hawkish rhetoric The hawkish tone of today’s Turkish MPC statement showed an overdue concern with high inflation (and expectations) and suggests that cuts in interest rates are off the agenda. That said, with... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The surprising jump in Turkish inflation in the past few months appears to be mainly due to a combination of a rise in dairy and egg inflation, the lingering impact of previous falls in the lira as... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external vulnerabilities back under the microscope Turkey’s recent diplomatic spat with the US – and the subsequent sell-off in financial markets – has refocussed attention on the economy’s external vulnerabilities. We have two areas of concern: the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The jump in Turkish inflation, to 11.2% y/y last month, from 10.7% y/y in August, means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of this year are looking less likely. We still think... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
