Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira collapse to trigger rate hikes The plunge in the Turkish lira over the past few days has been steeper than that which triggered abrupt monetary tightening in 2014 and 2017. We expect the MPC to hold an interim meeting over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: coalescing risks to trigger emergency rate hike Market sentiment towards Turkey is quickly evaporating as fears mount over the build-up of external vulnerabilities, high and rising inflation, and growing concerns that the central bank’s... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Turkish lira’s latest fall mean for inflation? The Turkish lira’s decline in recent weeks will keep headline inflation elevated, prompting the central bank to shrug off political pressure and hike interest rates in the coming months. The big risk... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The drivers of Turkey’s widening current account deficit The deterioration in Turkey’s current account position since mid-2017 has been driven by a surge in gold imports, a rising energy import bill and strong domestic demand feeding through into imports of... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the fall in the lira mean for Turkey’s FX debts? The latest fall in the Turkish lira doesn’t appear to have resulted in widespread balance sheet strains, but there are significant vulnerabilities in the corporate and banking sectors. This adds to... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further EM currency weakness likely to be limited Emerging market (EM) currencies have remained under pressure this week, and we expect most to soften further against the dollar. But, with the exceptions of the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, the... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) Today’s stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data will add to fears that the economy is overheating and strengthens the case for the MPC to hike interest rates further over the coming months. 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hike brings only temporary relief for the lira The move by the Turkish MPC to hike its late liquidity rate by 75bp today only brought temporary relief for the lira and suggests that markets are unconvinced about policymakers’ willingness to shore... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira slump likely to trigger rate hikes Mounting concerns about Turkey’s current account deficit as well as debt problems in the corporate sector are likely to keep the lira under pressure over the coming weeks. As a result, we now expect... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The lira’s fall and what it means for inflation and rates The fall in the Turkish lira seen in the past few weeks doesn’t look large enough (yet) to prevent inflation from easing later in the year and to prompt a monetary policy response, not least given... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Today’s weaker Turkish inflation reading and soft manufacturing PMI (which provided the first signs of a slowdown in the real economy) has reduced the likelihood that the MPC will tighten monetary... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2017) Today’s GDP figures from Turkey showed that growth was a faster-than-expected 7.3% y/y in Q4 of last year. Coming alongside high inflation, this will heighten fears that the economy is overheating. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira highlights Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has steadied in recent days, but the sharp decline seen earlier this month has reinforced concerns about the risks posed by the widening current account deficit. If the government... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Warning signs start to flash in Turkey’s economy The sheer pace of growth in Turkey looks increasingly like a cause for concern and there is mounting evidence that the economy is now overheating. Previous such episodes of overheating have been... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Turkish inflation fell to a lower-than-expected 10.3% y/y last month, from 11.9% y/y in December, and is likely to edge down further over the rest of this year. Even so, with the headline rate likely... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
