Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank bows to Erdogan The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.75%, when most had expected at least a 100bp hike, suggests that President Erdogan is already using his strengthened... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for May, at first sight, suggest that the economy has weathered the recent financial market turmoil, but we doubt that this resilience... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkish inflation spiralling out of control? Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected consumer price figures from Turkey provides further evidence that falls in the lira are feeding through into higher inflation more quickly and to a greater extent... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in June, to 15.4% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates, perhaps by 100bp, at its meeting later this month. 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs made for disappointing reading in most of Emerging Europe. After plunging to a nine-year low in May, the Turkish survey remained weak in June, suggesting that the... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to watch for after the Erdogan-AKP victory Victories for President Erdogan and his AKP-led alliance in Turkey’s elections have been welcomed by financial markets, but history suggests that this rally will be short-lived, particularly if Mr... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake? This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened)... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Turkey forecasts We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2018) & Czech CPI (May) The Turkish economy grew by a faster-than-expected 7.4% y/y in Q1 but, crucially, this predates the recent financial market turmoil. An abrupt slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters. 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank hikes, elections key to rate outlook The Turkish central bank’s decision to hike its one-week repo rate by 125bp, to 17.75%, is a tentative sign that it is shifting its focus away from simply shoring up the lira and towards tackling high... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) Despite the sharp rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 12.1% y/y, the rally in lira over the past week or so means that we think that the central bank will decide to stand pat at its MPC meeting on... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? Last week’s emergency rate hike by Turkey’s central bank has caused a rebound in the lira and past experience suggests that the rally may have a bit further to run over the coming weeks. But there are... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth stabilises before the sell-off Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth stabilised in Q1 and early signs point to growth having picked up at the start of Q2. The recent market stress is likely to push a handful of economies (notably... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: more to monetary policy shift than meets the eye The decision by Turkey’s central bank to begin using the one-week repo rate as its key policy tool looks less like an effort to simplify its monetary policy framework (as has been suggested by some)... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tighter financial conditions point to sharp slowdown The plunge in the Turkish lira and dislocation in local markets in recent weeks has resulted in a severe tightening of broader financial conditions. Past experience suggests that a tightening on the... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
