Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The surprising jump in Turkish inflation in the past few months appears to be mainly due to a combination of a rise in dairy and egg inflation, the lingering impact of previous falls in the lira as... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external vulnerabilities back under the microscope Turkey’s recent diplomatic spat with the US – and the subsequent sell-off in financial markets – has refocussed attention on the economy’s external vulnerabilities. We have two areas of concern: the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The jump in Turkish inflation, to 11.2% y/y last month, from 10.7% y/y in August, means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of this year are looking less likely. We still think... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC takes hawkish line after inflation surprise Last month’s jump in inflation prompted the Turkish MPC to adopt a more hawkish line in the statement accompanying today’s meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged. Even so, with inflation... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) & Czech CPI (August) Turkey’s economy had a strong Q2 and growth is set to be even quicker in Q3. But that’s likely to mark the peak in the cycle and we think the economy will slow more abruptly than most expect in 2018... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) A sharp pick-up in Turkish industrial production growth in July, which jumped to 14.5% y/y, was always on the cards given the comparison with July last year, when the manufacturing sector was... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month to 10.7% y/y means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of the year are looking less likely. That said, we still expect the headline... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe suggest that economic growth has remained robust in Q3. That said, we think that the third quarter will mark a peak for growth across the region. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s strong recovery won’t last Turkey’s economy enjoyed a strong first half of the year, but growth is close to peaking and we think that it will slow in 2018-19, and by more than most expect. What’s more, given the vulnerabilities... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) Turkish industrial production data was a little weaker than expected in June, but the figures still suggest that GDP growth in Q2 was probably stronger than in the first quarter of the year. 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation, to 9.8% y/y last month, from 10.9% y/y in June, is likely to make the central bank more confident that it can reverse the monetary tightening... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the recovery in Russia’s economy continued at the start of Q3, but provided further evidence that growth in the rest of the region... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
