Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three key stories from Turkey's balance of payments Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, but the drop in capital inflows in recent months is a concern and it appears that this... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of... 4th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2023) The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening has yet to take the sting out of domestic demand... 29th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of... 23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Inflation Report Briefing (Feb.) The communications from new Turkish central bank governor Karahan at today’s Inflation Report briefing will have helped to reassure investors that the change at the helm of the central bank won’t lead... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline inflation edged up slightly in Turkey to 64.9% y/y in January, and the m/m figure – a 6.7% increase on the back of a large minimum wage hike – looked even worse. The figures highlight the... 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for January remained soft and haven’t changed the broad picture that the region’s industrial sectors continue to struggle. Turkey’s PMI... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s interest rate proposal, last CBRT rate hike The proposal by the Hungarian government this week to change the reference rate used to price bank loans has sparked a lot of criticism and risks undermining the central bank’s independence. We think... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal? Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the... 25th January 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The 250bp interest rate hike from Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) today, to 45.00%, marks an end to its tightening cycle. Encouragingly, the communications were relatively hawkish and suggest that... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
