Emerging Europe Economics Update The lira’s fall and what it means for inflation and rates The fall in the Turkish lira seen in the past few weeks doesn’t look large enough (yet) to prevent inflation from easing later in the year and to prompt a monetary policy response, not least given... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Today’s weaker Turkish inflation reading and soft manufacturing PMI (which provided the first signs of a slowdown in the real economy) has reduced the likelihood that the MPC will tighten monetary... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2017) Today’s GDP figures from Turkey showed that growth was a faster-than-expected 7.3% y/y in Q4 of last year. Coming alongside high inflation, this will heighten fears that the economy is overheating. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira highlights Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has steadied in recent days, but the sharp decline seen earlier this month has reinforced concerns about the risks posed by the widening current account deficit. If the government... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Warning signs start to flash in Turkey’s economy The sheer pace of growth in Turkey looks increasingly like a cause for concern and there is mounting evidence that the economy is now overheating. Previous such episodes of overheating have been... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Turkish inflation fell to a lower-than-expected 10.3% y/y last month, from 11.9% y/y in December, and is likely to edge down further over the rest of this year. Even so, with the headline rate likely... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals policy to stay tight for longer The Turkish MPC’s decision to keep all of its key interest rates unchanged today was accompanied by a statement that indicates the Committee is more determined to bring inflation back under control... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Dec.) The decline in Turkish inflation in December, to 11.9% y/y, from 13.0% y/y in November, will take some pressure off the central bank to follow up last month’s interest rate hike with further... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rate hike fails to convince markets The Turkish central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller hike in its late liquidity rate today than markets had anticipated seems to reflect political pressure not to tighten policy substantially. The... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities are mounting (again) The sheer pace of annual GDP growth in Turkey in Q3 was flattered by base effects, but a closer look at the data shows worrying signs that strong growth has contributed to the recent jump in inflation... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to a six-year high of 11.1% y/y, was flattered by the comparison with Q3 of last year, when output was disrupted by the coup attempt. The annual rate of... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a fourteen-year high of 13.0% y/y in November, from 11.9% y/y in October, will undoubtedly alarm policymakers at the central bank. With the government seemingly... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom In this Focus, we highlight the scale of Turkey’s credit boom and warn that the build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is more of a concern than most acknowledge. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 11.9% y/y, was worryingly broad based. There are reasons to think that inflation will begin to fall significantly from December, but in the near-term... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we trust Turkey’s GDP data? The argument made recently that Turkey’s GDP data are being manipulated by the authorities and that the recent rapid growth rates aren’t plausible doesn’t seem to square with other available evidence... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up hawkish rhetoric The hawkish tone of today’s Turkish MPC statement showed an overdue concern with high inflation (and expectations) and suggests that cuts in interest rates are off the agenda. That said, with... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
