Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: further rate hikes unlikely to materialise The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today and the accompanying statement reinforce our view that last month’s aggressive rate hike didn’t represent a shift back to... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production held up better-than-expected in August but there are clear signs that underlying growth in the sector is losing momentum. The effects of the recent currency crisis and... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Balance of Payments (Aug.) Turkey’s current account position improved further in August adding to the evidence that a weaker lira is helping the economy to rebalance. But this adjustment has almost entirely reflect a slump in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: latest steps to tackle inflation lack real punch The Turkish government’s latest plan to tackle high and rising inflation will probably have a limited impact and it reinforces our view that last month’s aggressive interest rate hike did not herald a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 24.5% y/y in September increases the chances of another interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. But given the scale of last month’s rate... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Turkish central bank shifting back to orthodoxy? Last week’s aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey has reduced the risk of a more acute balance of payments crisis and helped to restore some of the central bank’s (CBRT) damaged credibility. But the... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The much stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production for July suggest that the boost to competitiveness from the fall in the lira in May and June has supported the sector. But these predate... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank steps up to the plate The aggressive interest rate hike delivered by Turkey’s central bank has soothed the markets, but the next thing to watch will be the reaction of President Erdogan. Any sign that he will try to... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2018) The Turkish economy grew at a strong pace of 5.2% y/y in Q2 but the monthly activity data show that there was a loss of momentum towards the end of the quarter. More timely figures point to a steep... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what will the CBRT deliver? Turkey’s central bank has all but confirmed that it will raise interest rates at next week’s MPC meeting and an increase of 350-400bp seems to be the bare minimum that will be needed to soothe... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Turkish inflation jumped again in August, reaching 17.9% y/y, and it is likely to rise even further over the coming months. The central bank has just stated that the inflation figures will prompt a... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? The fresh sharp falls in the Turkish lira this week reflect growing concerns about the state of domestic policymaking and the health of the banking sector. Monetary tightening or an improvement in... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Turkey entering a steep recession The latest Turkish activity data suggest that the plunge in the lira since May, and the associated sharp tightening of financial conditions, has tipped the economy into recession. Things are only... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey entering a steep recession The latest Turkish activity data suggest that the plunge in the lira since May, and the associated sharp tightening of financial conditions, has tipped the economy into recession. Things are only... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How does the latest EM sell-off stack up? Asset prices in Turkey and Argentina have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, while the moves in other countries’ markets look similar to previous EM sell-offs over the past decade. It’s still very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
