Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown, Turkey’s bumpy recovery The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Istanbul election re-run poses stimulus risks The decision to cancel and re-run the Istanbul mayoral election is likely to prompt the Turkish government to continue loosening fiscal policy in the coming weeks. Past experience suggests that the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Turkey This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Turkey’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s mixed messages, Polish rate expectations The Turkish central bank’s messaging to investors has become even more confused over the past week and the institution’s damaged credibility means that it will be even more difficult for policymakers... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation data for April will come as some relief to the central bank. But with a number of downside risks facing the lira, policymaker’s recent dovish shift feels... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC brings policy easing on to the agenda The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at today’s meeting was widely expected, although changes to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is starting to consider... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish fiscal plans, Turkish economy past the worst Plans outlined by Poland’s government this week confirmed that fiscal policy will be loosened significantly this year and that there will be more scope for stimulus in 2020 than we had previously... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 1.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in February provides further evidence that the economy pulled out of recession in Q1. But the recovery is likely to be slow. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkish inflation was stable at 19.7% y/y in March and, while we expect it to resume its downward trend in the coming months, in the near-term at least monetary policy will remain tight to support the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks the weakest link during market stress The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets has raised external borrowing costs, making it more difficult to roll over the country’s large external debt burden. The risks are largest in the banking... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: financial conditions tighten sharply The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground, but financial conditions remain much tighter than they were at the start of last week and point to continued weakness in domestic demand. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira back in the firing line The sell-off in the Turkish lira late last week provided a timely reminder that many of the factors that drove last year’s currency crisis – including geopolitical tensions and concerns about the... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for January suggest that the worst of the recession has passed. That said, the recovery is likely to slow-going and our forecast for GDP... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the problem of deposit dollarisation The growing prevalence of foreign currency deposits in Turkey’s banking sector is symptomatic of the country’s long-standing inflation problem. Unless the central bank breaks with the past and brings... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy formally entered into recession in the final quarter of last year and, while the worst of the downturn may now have passed, the weak carryover means that we expect GDP to decline... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, easing cycle to start in June The hawkish tone of the Turkish central bank’s recent communications meant that a rate cut was never likely at today’s meeting. But with inflation set to fall further in the coming months and the... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
