Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT to loosen policy, rapid CEE growth unlikely to last Further evidence this week that the Turkish economy is in the midst of a severe recession adds to the reasons to expect that the MPC will cut interest rates next week. Meanwhile, another batch of... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond rally to reverse, Turkish elections and rate cuts Investors pared back their expectations for interest rate hikes in Central Europe this week, but we still think that a fresh pick-up in inflation will prompt more monetary tightening than most... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Turkish inflation in December, combined with the weakness of the latest activity and the recovery in the lira, means that the central bank is likely to press ahead with a rate cut... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s weak manufacturing PMI will strengthen the Turkish central bank’s case that monetary policy should be loosened. We think that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is more likely... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for October suggest that, after contracting in Q3, the economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q4. Weak economic growth... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank preparing for rate cuts in early 2019 The statement accompanying today’s decision by Turkey’s central bank to leave policy on hold suggests that the MPC is contemplating rate cuts. With inflation falling back and political pressure on the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2018) The effects of August’s currency crisis caused Turkey’s economy to contract in Q3 and more timely evidence suggests that the downturn deepened in Q4. Our forecast that GDP will fall by 0.5% over 2019... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The greater-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 21.6% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank pushes ahead with an interest cut in the coming months. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker currency helping Turkey more than Argentina A rise in inflation and higher interest rates mean Turkey and Argentina are likely to experience deep recessions over the next couple of quarters. However, whereas the fall in the lira should help to... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian oil output jumps, CEE economies gather pace The Russian government seems to have softened its line about cutting oil output to prop up prices this week, but given that output surged in October, any cuts would have a limited economic impact... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for September add to the evidence that the economy is entering a deep recession. Our GDP growth forecasts lie well below the consensus. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weaker lira softening the blow The sharp fall in the Turkish lira since the start of the year has pushed up inflation and caused financial conditions to tighten markedly, tipping the economy into recession. But there are signs that... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional growth slows further, inflation rises GDP data to be released next week are likely to confirm that growth across Emerging Europe continued to weaken in Q3. Meanwhile, figures published this week showed that inflation picked up in most of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in October, to 25.2% y/y, is unlikely to prompt further interest rate hikes from the central bank. Instead, the main risk is that, with pipeline... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
