Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan gets his way with aggressive rate cut The Turkish central bank’s new governor, Murat Uysal, delivered a sharp 425bp interest rate cut at today’s MPC meeting and pressure from President Erdogan means that further aggressive easing lies in... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish banks vulnerable to fresh market turbulence An initial round of US sanctions on Turkey, if approved by President Trump, would probably generate some financial market turbulence and this could ultimately cause major strains on banks’ balance... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of the CBRT reshuffle The dismissal of Turkey’s central bank governor over the weekend increases the chances of aggressive cuts in interest rates in the near-term. But it has also raised the risk of larger currency falls... 8th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in June, to 15.7% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank will embark on an easing cycle at its policy meeting later this month. But all hinges on what... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal concerns in Turkey, Hungary’s current account Investors in Turkey will be nervously waiting to see if President Erdogan can persuade President Trump at the G20 to approve Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile defence system, lifting the threat... 28th June 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Istanbul election won’t lead to turnaround in policymaking This weekend’s re-run of the Istanbul mayoral election will dominate the headlines in the coming days, but it looks like the result will do little to curtail the deterioration in Turkish economic... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for April provide the first hard evidence that, after returning to growth in Q1, the economy contracted again in Q2. This supports our view... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s S-400 deal, Russia’s sanction risk Turkish assets look set to come under more pressure in the coming weeks as the government pushes ahead with its plans to purchase a Russian missile defence system. Meanwhile, comments from Russia’s... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s banks: why the next crisis will be worse Turkey’s banks came through last year’s currency crisis without suffering the severe problems that many had feared. But credit growth will probably stay weak, holding back the economic recovery... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT inches towards easing, but lira risks linger The Turkish central bank provided further hints at today’s meeting that it is moving towards monetary easing. But policy moves will hinge on the lira and, with a number of flashpoints on the horizon... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figures for May, combined with the recent rally in the lira, means that the MPC will continue to shift away from its hawkish stance at this month’s policy... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungarian stimulus, Ukraine & IMF, Turkey’s double-dip The fiscal stimulus package unveiled in Hungary this week adds to reasons to think that the economy will grow more quickly than most anticipate over the course of this year. Meanwhile, positive... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy returned to growth in Q1 but the tightening of financial conditions over the past couple of months has probably resulted in a renewed downturn. This reinforces our view that the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) The much better-than-expected 2.1% rise in Turkish industrial production in March adds to signs that the economy grew in Q1, by around 0.5-0.8% q/q. But the recent tightening of financial conditions... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Turkey’s FX reserves The Turkish central bank (CBRT) seems to have become more inclined to use its foreign exchange reserves to support the lira, despite growing scrutiny about the level of reserves. Growing question... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
