Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: further easing, but rates to go up by mid-2020 September’s plunge in inflation alongside the removal of US sanctions gave the Turkish central bank the green light to deliver another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and the easing cycle... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and sanctions: the calm before the storm? Turkey’s financial markets have taken the US sanctions imposed yesterday in their stride, but the threat of harsher measures in the context of the country’s weak external position could result in a... 15th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the vulnerabilities in Turkey’s banking sector The growing threat of sanctions on Turkey in relation to its recent incursion into Syria have already put significant downward pressure on Turkish financial assets and fragilities in the banking... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in August is likely to prove a bump in the road, with more timely survey evidence pointing to a recovery over the coming months. That... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the latest sanctions threat The prospect of Turkish military action in Syria has again raised the spectre of US sanctions. While these would probably be on the soft end of the spectrum, Turkey’s poor external position means that... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s steep fall in Turkish inflation, taking it back into single digits, was flattered by base effects and the headline rate will rise again later this year. Even so, these figures mean that... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles Turkey’s central bank looks set to cut interest rates further over the coming months, but past experience suggests that the easing cycle will be short and that renewed lira weakness will eventually... 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Jul.) The chunky 4.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in July confirms that June’s dip in output was a blip. Meanwhile, the current account position has continued to improve. But efforts to turbo... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: more near-term rate cuts, but hikes loom in 2020 The Turkish central bank delivered another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and we now expect the one-week repo rate to reach a trough at 12.50% (previously 16.00%). But if we’re right in... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The steeper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August leaves the door wide open for the central bank to cut interest rates aggressively again when the MPC meets next week. We have pencilled in... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q rise in Turkish GDP in Q2 has prompted us to revise up our 2019 GDP forecast to -0.8% (previously -1.8%). But there’s a growing risk that policymakers’ efforts to... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The 3.7% m/m fall in Turkish industrial production in June adds to the evidence that GDP growth in Q2 was much weaker than in Q1. Leading indicators suggest that the scale of the fall in output was... 16th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira’s resilience built on shaky foundations The Turkish lira has held up remarkably well in the face of the escalation of the US-China trade war and the recent rise in global investor risk aversion. But with the threat of US sanctions lingering... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Turkish inflation in July is likely to be temporary and followed by chunky falls in the coming months. Accordingly, so long as the lira remains stable, the central bank will follow up last... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle Turkish financial markets took Thursday’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut in their stride but we don’t think that this resilience will last. Investors seems to be coming round to our view that... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
