Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish activity data for December suggest that the economic recovery gathered steam in the final quarter of last year. Looser fiscal and monetary policy will keep the... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Support for Turkish lira cannot be sustained The Turkish authorities have kept a tight grip on the lira in recent weeks but we don’t think that this can continue for much longer and expect the currency to fall by 20% against the dollar by end... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in Turkish inflation in January is unlikely to sway the central bank (CBRT) away from another interest rate cut this month as policymakers cave into pressure from President Erdogan. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s recovery rests on shaky foundations Policy loosening will drive a stronger recovery in Turkey’s economy than most expect this year, but this is likely to come at the cost of higher inflation, a widening current account deficit and falls... 21st January 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT bows to Erdogan but will have to backpedal The Turkish central bank (CBRT) cut interest rates by another 75bp today as policymakers bowed to pressure from President Erdogan for looser policy. More rate cuts are likely in the next few months... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) The Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for November were a mixed bag but, on balance, suggest that the economy gathered pace in Q4. Looser policy means that we think the economy... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in December means that this month’s interest rate decision will be a close call. For now, we think that the central bank will cave into pressure... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paltry office rental growth in Turkey Despite a weaker lira, Istanbul prime office rents have, perhaps surprisingly, held up in the last two years. We expect them to hold steady over the next two years, but beyond 2021, we forecast... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank not taking its foot off the pedal The 200bp interest rate cut (to 12.0%) by the Turkish central bank as well as other recent tweaks to boost lending suggest that policymakers will try to meet President Erdogan’s demand to bring rates... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkish inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a steady upward trend over the next couple of years. This won’t prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further at... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% q/q in Q3 but the lagged effects of policy loosening mean that the recovery is likely to gather pace over the next few quarters. The authorities’... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: recovery built on rocky foundations Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Turkey’s economic recovery has continued and we think that year-on-year growth could reach as high as 5-6% in Q4 and early 2020. But policy... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The rebound in Turkish industrial production in September suggests that the economy ended Q3 on a firmer footing and more timely evidence points to a further recovery in the coming months. The economy... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: credit recovery has some legs, but brings risks The recent pick-up in bank lending in Turkey probably has further to run over the coming months, which will provide some support to the economic recovery. But the pace and composition of new lending... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The drop in Turkish inflation last month probably marks the trough and inflation is likely to rise over the coming months. Pressure from President Erdogan and recent sanguine inflation forecasts from... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Investment the weak spot in Turkey’s recovery Turkey’s economy has made a strong recovery from its recession last year, but investment has continued to fall and is unlikely to make a quick turnaround over the next couple of years. 31st October 2019 · 4 mins read
