Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figures for May, combined with the recent rally in the lira, means that the MPC will continue to shift away from its hawkish stance at this month’s policy... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungarian stimulus, Ukraine & IMF, Turkey’s double-dip The fiscal stimulus package unveiled in Hungary this week adds to reasons to think that the economy will grow more quickly than most anticipate over the course of this year. Meanwhile, positive... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy returned to growth in Q1 but the tightening of financial conditions over the past couple of months has probably resulted in a renewed downturn. This reinforces our view that the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) The much better-than-expected 2.1% rise in Turkish industrial production in March adds to signs that the economy grew in Q1, by around 0.5-0.8% q/q. But the recent tightening of financial conditions... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Turkey’s FX reserves The Turkish central bank (CBRT) seems to have become more inclined to use its foreign exchange reserves to support the lira, despite growing scrutiny about the level of reserves. Growing question... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown, Turkey’s bumpy recovery The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Istanbul election re-run poses stimulus risks The decision to cancel and re-run the Istanbul mayoral election is likely to prompt the Turkish government to continue loosening fiscal policy in the coming weeks. Past experience suggests that the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Turkey This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Turkey’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s mixed messages, Polish rate expectations The Turkish central bank’s messaging to investors has become even more confused over the past week and the institution’s damaged credibility means that it will be even more difficult for policymakers... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation data for April will come as some relief to the central bank. But with a number of downside risks facing the lira, policymaker’s recent dovish shift feels... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC brings policy easing on to the agenda The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at today’s meeting was widely expected, although changes to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is starting to consider... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish fiscal plans, Turkish economy past the worst Plans outlined by Poland’s government this week confirmed that fiscal policy will be loosened significantly this year and that there will be more scope for stimulus in 2020 than we had previously... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 1.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in February provides further evidence that the economy pulled out of recession in Q1. But the recovery is likely to be slow. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkish inflation was stable at 19.7% y/y in March and, while we expect it to resume its downward trend in the coming months, in the near-term at least monetary policy will remain tight to support the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks the weakest link during market stress The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets has raised external borrowing costs, making it more difficult to roll over the country’s large external debt burden. The risks are largest in the banking... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
