Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s fiscal position no longer a source of comfort Turkey’s public finances remain in good shape compared with most other EMs but they have deteriorated in recent years and are no longer the pillar of strength that they once were. The debt-to-GDP... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 11.4% y/y, suggests that the effects of the sharp fall in the lira in the early part of the month more than offset the impact of weaker domestic demand on... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy managed to grow in Q1 as a strong January and February more than offset a dire March. But the latest activity figures are ominous and point to a collapse in activity in Q2. 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut, door opens for more easing Turkey’s central bank stepped up its monetary support for the economy with a 50bp cut in interest rates today and recent announcements of financial support from Qatar and Japan probably tips the... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in March add to the evidence that, even though the government refrained from imposing draconian lockdown measures, the economy probably... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The fall in Turkish inflation in April, coupled with growing evidence of a sharp economic downturn, may tempt the central bank to cut interest rates further. But this would severely test investors’... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut again, but lira limits scope for more The Turkish central bank responded to signs of a clear downturn in the economy by cutting interest rates by a further 100bp today but, with downward pressure on the lira continuing to mount, we think... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Turkey turn to the IMF? The damage to Turkey’s economy from the coronavirus outbreak has led to suggestions that the government may turn to the IMF for a financing package, but the political backdrop means that this would... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) The drop in Turkish inflation in March, coupled with the sharp downturn in the economy, means that the central bank is likely to follow up last month’s emergency 100bp interest rate cut with further... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: banks more vulnerable than in currency crisis Turkey’s banks muddled through the currency crisis two years ago, but they are now in a weaker position to confront the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. At the very... 2nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has held up relatively well amid the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies, but the country’s large external debts leave it vulnerable if external financing conditions... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further increase in Turkish inflation in February probably won’t be enough to deter the central bank from easing monetary policy a little more in the next couple of months. But policymakers have... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The rise in Turkey’s manufacturing PMI to a two-year high in February provides further evidence thatthe economic recovery continued at a rapid pace at the start of 2020. Elsewhere, there is some... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) Turkey’s economy grew by a rapid 1.9% q/q in Q4 of last year and loose policy will keep it motoring along over the coming quarters. But there are increasing signs that strong growth is fuelling a... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: easing cycle near an end, hikes later this year The Turkish central bank (CBRT) shrugged off rising inflation and lowered interest rates by another 50bp today, but the accompanying statement was a little more cautious and we think that the easing... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
