Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% q/q in Q3 but the lagged effects of policy loosening mean that the recovery is likely to gather pace over the next few quarters. The authorities’... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: recovery built on rocky foundations Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Turkey’s economic recovery has continued and we think that year-on-year growth could reach as high as 5-6% in Q4 and early 2020. But policy... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The rebound in Turkish industrial production in September suggests that the economy ended Q3 on a firmer footing and more timely evidence points to a further recovery in the coming months. The economy... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: credit recovery has some legs, but brings risks The recent pick-up in bank lending in Turkey probably has further to run over the coming months, which will provide some support to the economic recovery. But the pace and composition of new lending... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The drop in Turkish inflation last month probably marks the trough and inflation is likely to rise over the coming months. Pressure from President Erdogan and recent sanguine inflation forecasts from... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Investment the weak spot in Turkey’s recovery Turkey’s economy has made a strong recovery from its recession last year, but investment has continued to fall and is unlikely to make a quick turnaround over the next couple of years. 31st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: further easing, but rates to go up by mid-2020 September’s plunge in inflation alongside the removal of US sanctions gave the Turkish central bank the green light to deliver another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and the easing cycle... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and sanctions: the calm before the storm? Turkey’s financial markets have taken the US sanctions imposed yesterday in their stride, but the threat of harsher measures in the context of the country’s weak external position could result in a... 15th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the vulnerabilities in Turkey’s banking sector The growing threat of sanctions on Turkey in relation to its recent incursion into Syria have already put significant downward pressure on Turkish financial assets and fragilities in the banking... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in August is likely to prove a bump in the road, with more timely survey evidence pointing to a recovery over the coming months. That... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the latest sanctions threat The prospect of Turkish military action in Syria has again raised the spectre of US sanctions. While these would probably be on the soft end of the spectrum, Turkey’s poor external position means that... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s steep fall in Turkish inflation, taking it back into single digits, was flattered by base effects and the headline rate will rise again later this year. Even so, these figures mean that... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles Turkey’s central bank looks set to cut interest rates further over the coming months, but past experience suggests that the easing cycle will be short and that renewed lira weakness will eventually... 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Jul.) The chunky 4.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in July confirms that June’s dip in output was a blip. Meanwhile, the current account position has continued to improve. But efforts to turbo... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: more near-term rate cuts, but hikes loom in 2020 The Turkish central bank delivered another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and we now expect the one-week repo rate to reach a trough at 12.50% (previously 16.00%). But if we’re right in... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
