Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy recorded a strong 15.6% q/q rebound in Q3 from its collapse in Q2, but lingering weakness in the tourism sector as well as the recent tightening of both virus containment measures and... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for September add to the evidence the recovery was strong over Q3, although prolonged weakness in the tourism sector and the recent sharp... 13th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan hints at orthodox shift, up to CBRT to deliver President Erdogan’s latest comments suggest that the recent changes in Turkey’s economic management team may herald a shift back to orthodox policymaking. If these developments are backed up by a... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Make or break time for Turkey The sacking of Turkey’s central bank governor, as well as the (possible) departure of Finance Minister and President Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak, has prompted a rally in local financial... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pressure builds on CBRT, currency crisis fears grow The Turkish lira has continued to fall sharply over the past couple of days and pressure is mounting on the central bank (CBRT) to deliver aggressive policy rate hikes at the MPC meeting later this... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate edged up to 11.9% y/y in October and is likely to rise further over the coming months. This, combined with the recent sharp falls in the lira, means that the central... 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish lira’s fall into context The Turkish lira has fallen sharply in recent days amid concerns about the central bank’s decision making, rising geopolitical tensions, and the backdrop of a dire external position. The experience... 28th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for August add to the evidence that the recovery has remained strong, although the figures appear to have been flattered by a shift in the timing... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has created yet another schism in Turkey’s relations with the US, the EU and Russia. It may only take a misstep... 8th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate was unchanged for a third consecutive month at 11.8% y/y in September but we expect it to rise over the coming months. And with the lira still under pressure, the... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt rate hike will prevent further falls in the Turkish lira While the Turkish lira has rallied today following the central bank’s surprise decision to raise its policy rate, we think that it will fall back before long unless the central bank follows up today’s... 24th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT clawing back credibility The Turkish central bank’s (CBRT’s) decision to hike its policy rates by 200bp today is a response to the recent lira weakness, and should help to restore the Bank’s battered credibility. The move... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkish industrial production and retail sales posted a strong recovery in July as the continued easing of lockdown measures and rapid credit expansion boosted activity. The tightening of monetary... 14th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Turkish inflation was unchanged between July and August, at 11.8% y/y, but the lira rather than inflation is likely to determine the central bank’s next moves. If the lira’s recent stability proves... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tourism and tighter policy to hinder recovery The 11% q/q drop in GDP in Turkey in Q2 was smaller than we had expected and we now forecast the economy to slump by 3% this year (previously 5.8%). But the recovery over the coming quarters will be... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
