Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: banks more vulnerable than in currency crisis Turkey’s banks muddled through the currency crisis two years ago, but they are now in a weaker position to confront the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. At the very... 2nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has held up relatively well amid the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies, but the country’s large external debts leave it vulnerable if external financing conditions... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further increase in Turkish inflation in February probably won’t be enough to deter the central bank from easing monetary policy a little more in the next couple of months. But policymakers have... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The rise in Turkey’s manufacturing PMI to a two-year high in February provides further evidence thatthe economic recovery continued at a rapid pace at the start of 2020. Elsewhere, there is some... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) Turkey’s economy grew by a rapid 1.9% q/q in Q4 of last year and loose policy will keep it motoring along over the coming quarters. But there are increasing signs that strong growth is fuelling a... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: easing cycle near an end, hikes later this year The Turkish central bank (CBRT) shrugged off rising inflation and lowered interest rates by another 50bp today, but the accompanying statement was a little more cautious and we think that the easing... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish activity data for December suggest that the economic recovery gathered steam in the final quarter of last year. Looser fiscal and monetary policy will keep the... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Support for Turkish lira cannot be sustained The Turkish authorities have kept a tight grip on the lira in recent weeks but we don’t think that this can continue for much longer and expect the currency to fall by 20% against the dollar by end... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in Turkish inflation in January is unlikely to sway the central bank (CBRT) away from another interest rate cut this month as policymakers cave into pressure from President Erdogan. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s recovery rests on shaky foundations Policy loosening will drive a stronger recovery in Turkey’s economy than most expect this year, but this is likely to come at the cost of higher inflation, a widening current account deficit and falls... 21st January 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT bows to Erdogan but will have to backpedal The Turkish central bank (CBRT) cut interest rates by another 75bp today as policymakers bowed to pressure from President Erdogan for looser policy. More rate cuts are likely in the next few months... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) The Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for November were a mixed bag but, on balance, suggest that the economy gathered pace in Q4. Looser policy means that we think the economy... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in December means that this month’s interest rate decision will be a close call. For now, we think that the central bank will cave into pressure... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paltry office rental growth in Turkey Despite a weaker lira, Istanbul prime office rents have, perhaps surprisingly, held up in the last two years. We expect them to hold steady over the next two years, but beyond 2021, we forecast... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank not taking its foot off the pedal The 200bp interest rate cut (to 12.0%) by the Turkish central bank as well as other recent tweaks to boost lending suggest that policymakers will try to meet President Erdogan’s demand to bring rates... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkish inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a steady upward trend over the next couple of years. This won’t prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further at... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
