Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s dire external position The replacement at the helm of Turkey’s central bank is particularly worrying against a backdrop of a dire balance of payments position, large dependence on foreign capital inflows and the central... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM contagion risks from Turkey look limited The latest crisis engulfing Turkey will make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may cause... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks are a major cause for concern The abrupt sacking of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) governor on Friday has triggered sharp falls in the lira and a tightening of external financing conditions. The banking sector is a key source of... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT overdelivers to reassure investors Turkey’s central bank didn’t disappoint investors, delivering a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike (to 19.00%) today, and we think that it will keep monetary conditions tighter than most... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does Turkey need to do to bring inflation down? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) looks set to hike interest rates further this week, and the experience from other EMs suggests that it will need to keep real interest rates elevated for several years to... 15th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Turkish activity figures for January suggest that the economy held up relatively well despite the tightening of COVID-19 containment measures around the turn of the year. And there are encouraging... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 15.6% y/y in February, is likely to mark the peak and we expect inflation to fall steadily over the next six months or so. But... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2020) Turkey’s economy continued to recover in Q4 2020 and was one of the few economies around the world to grow over last year as a whole. But there are signs that activity faltered at the tail end of the... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish CBRT suggests Turkish lira may appreciate further The hawkish statement accompanying today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 17.0% supports our view that the rally in the lira has further to run... 18th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for December add to the evidence that the economic recovery slowed sharply at the tail end of 2020. This weakness has almost certainly carried... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds fire amid lira rally, faltering economy Turkey’s central bank left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting as concerns about the faltering economic recovery took priority. But the hawkish tone on... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November indicate that the economic recovery remained strong in the middle of Q4. But more timely indicators suggest that a combination of a... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 14.6% y/y in December, is unlikely to be enough to push the central bank (CBRT) towards additional monetary tightening. Even so, with the CBRT... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkish retail property roasted? The recent re-introduction of weekend curfews and the announced four-day new year lockdown suggest that the struggles of the retail sector will continue into 2021. And despite the improving outlook... 22nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy carried a lot of momentum into the start of Q4 but the recent tightening of virus containment measures... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to suffer a fresh... 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
