Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Turkish activity data for May show that industrial production and retail sales recovered from their low point in April but it still looks like Turkey suffered one of the largest contractions in Q2... 13th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Turkey’s latest credit boom Turkey’s credit boom that started towards the end of last year has been turbocharged in recent months and this should provide some welcome support to the economy as it emerges from the coronavirus... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in Turkish inflation in June, to 12.6% y/y, as well as last week’s surprise decision by the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged, reinforces our view that the easing cycle is over... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s central bank closes the door on easing cycle Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly left interest rates on hold today and it’s difficult to see how economic conditions will change in such a way over the coming months to justify renewed easing. We... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The plunge in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the economy suffered a almighty hit to GDP in Q2 – we expect the economy to suffer one of the largest contractions... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s fiscal position no longer a source of comfort Turkey’s public finances remain in good shape compared with most other EMs but they have deteriorated in recent years and are no longer the pillar of strength that they once were. The debt-to-GDP... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 11.4% y/y, suggests that the effects of the sharp fall in the lira in the early part of the month more than offset the impact of weaker domestic demand on... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy managed to grow in Q1 as a strong January and February more than offset a dire March. But the latest activity figures are ominous and point to a collapse in activity in Q2. 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut, door opens for more easing Turkey’s central bank stepped up its monetary support for the economy with a 50bp cut in interest rates today and recent announcements of financial support from Qatar and Japan probably tips the... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in March add to the evidence that, even though the government refrained from imposing draconian lockdown measures, the economy probably... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The fall in Turkish inflation in April, coupled with growing evidence of a sharp economic downturn, may tempt the central bank to cut interest rates further. But this would severely test investors’... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut again, but lira limits scope for more The Turkish central bank responded to signs of a clear downturn in the economy by cutting interest rates by a further 100bp today but, with downward pressure on the lira continuing to mount, we think... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Turkey turn to the IMF? The damage to Turkey’s economy from the coronavirus outbreak has led to suggestions that the government may turn to the IMF for a financing package, but the political backdrop means that this would... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) The drop in Turkish inflation in March, coupled with the sharp downturn in the economy, means that the central bank is likely to follow up last month’s emergency 100bp interest rate cut with further... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
