Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT still treading cautiously The statement accompanying today’s decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% suggests that policymakers are (for now) standing up to political pressure to lower... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think the outlook for bonds is brighter in India than in Brazil While we expect a renewed rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year government bonds in both India and Brazil, we project the increase in the former to be... 16th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The m/m falls in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in April are likely to be followed by further weakness in May (when a three-week lockdown was in place). This supports our view that the... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The latest falls in the lira mean that, despite the fall in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 16.6% y/y last month, the central bank (CBRT)will probably leave interest rates unchanged at this month... 3rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence It's been a rocky week for the Turkish lira amid more changes at the central bank and political upheaval regarding a possible link between politicians and organised crime. This, coming alongside high... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Turkey’s economic recovery Turkey’s government has lifted a three-week national lockdown today and this should pave the way for a recovery over the coming months. But the hit to activity during the lockdown means that the... 17th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) Turkey’s activity figures for March suggest that the economy recorded further growth in Q1. But the recovery lost steam over the quarter and the combination of more restrictive virus containment... 11th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT eyeing up an easing cycle Turkey’s central bank didn’t spring any surprises and left its one-week repo rate on hold at 19.00% today and, while the accompanying statement maintained a hawkish tone, policymakers left the door... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Turkey’s activity figures for February suggest that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter of this year and the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, combined with the tightening of financial... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: capital controls would probably be ineffective Turkey’s large external vulnerabilities mean that aggressive rate cuts by the central bank (CBRT) would run the risk of sharp and destabilising falls in the lira. A probable next step by policymakers... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles Past experience suggests that, with inflation near a peak and the economy slowing (alongside pressure from President Erdogan for lower interest rates), Turkey’s central bank will push ahead and ease... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for Turkey The upheaval at Turkey’s central bank means that we now expect a 200bp interest rate cut next month followed by further aggressive easing in the second half of 2021. But the result is that inflation... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s dire external position The replacement at the helm of Turkey’s central bank is particularly worrying against a backdrop of a dire balance of payments position, large dependence on foreign capital inflows and the central... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM contagion risks from Turkey look limited The latest crisis engulfing Turkey will make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may cause... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks are a major cause for concern The abrupt sacking of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) governor on Friday has triggered sharp falls in the lira and a tightening of external financing conditions. The banking sector is a key source of... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
