Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.)

Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November indicate that the economic recovery remained strong in the middle of Q4. But more timely indicators suggest that a combination of a...

13th January 2021 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The further rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 14.6% y/y in December, is unlikely to be enough to push the central bank (CBRT) towards additional monetary tightening. Even so, with the CBRT...

4th January 2021 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Is Turkish retail property roasted?

The recent re-introduction of weekend curfews and the announced four-day new year lockdown suggest that the struggles of the retail sector will continue into 2021. And despite the improving outlook...

22nd December 2020 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.)

Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy carried a lot of momentum into the start of Q4 but the recent tightening of virus containment measures...

14th December 2020 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)

Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to suffer a fresh...

3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey GDP (Q3)

Turkey’s economy recorded a strong 15.6% q/q rebound in Q3 from its collapse in Q2, but lingering weakness in the tourism sector as well as the recent tightening of both virus containment measures and...

30th November 2020 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.)

Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for September add to the evidence the recovery was strong over Q3, although prolonged weakness in the tourism sector and the recent sharp...

13th November 2020 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Erdogan hints at orthodox shift, up to CBRT to deliver

President Erdogan’s latest comments suggest that the recent changes in Turkey’s economic management team may herald a shift back to orthodox policymaking. If these developments are backed up by a...

12th November 2020 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Make or break time for Turkey

The sacking of Turkey’s central bank governor, as well as the (possible) departure of Finance Minister and President Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak, has prompted a rally in local financial...

9th November 2020 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Pressure builds on CBRT, currency crisis fears grow

The Turkish lira has continued to fall sharply over the past couple of days and pressure is mounting on the central bank (CBRT) to deliver aggressive policy rate hikes at the MPC meeting later this...

3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)

Turkey’s headline inflation rate edged up to 11.9% y/y in October and is likely to rise further over the coming months. This, combined with the recent sharp falls in the lira, means that the central...

3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM banks: revisiting the risks

India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to...

3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Putting the Turkish lira’s fall into context

The Turkish lira has fallen sharply in recent days amid concerns about the central bank’s decision making, rising geopolitical tensions, and the backdrop of a dire external position. The experience...

28th October 2020 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.)

Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for August add to the evidence that the recovery has remained strong, although the figures appear to have been flattered by a shift in the timing...

13th October 2020 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey and the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has created yet another schism in Turkey’s relations with the US, the EU and Russia. It may only take a misstep...

8th October 2020 · 4 mins read