Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) Turkey’s activity figures for March suggest that the economy recorded further growth in Q1. But the recovery lost steam over the quarter and the combination of more restrictive virus containment... 11th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT eyeing up an easing cycle Turkey’s central bank didn’t spring any surprises and left its one-week repo rate on hold at 19.00% today and, while the accompanying statement maintained a hawkish tone, policymakers left the door... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Turkey’s activity figures for February suggest that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter of this year and the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, combined with the tightening of financial... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: capital controls would probably be ineffective Turkey’s large external vulnerabilities mean that aggressive rate cuts by the central bank (CBRT) would run the risk of sharp and destabilising falls in the lira. A probable next step by policymakers... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles Past experience suggests that, with inflation near a peak and the economy slowing (alongside pressure from President Erdogan for lower interest rates), Turkey’s central bank will push ahead and ease... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for Turkey The upheaval at Turkey’s central bank means that we now expect a 200bp interest rate cut next month followed by further aggressive easing in the second half of 2021. But the result is that inflation... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s dire external position The replacement at the helm of Turkey’s central bank is particularly worrying against a backdrop of a dire balance of payments position, large dependence on foreign capital inflows and the central... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM contagion risks from Turkey look limited The latest crisis engulfing Turkey will make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may cause... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks are a major cause for concern The abrupt sacking of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) governor on Friday has triggered sharp falls in the lira and a tightening of external financing conditions. The banking sector is a key source of... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT overdelivers to reassure investors Turkey’s central bank didn’t disappoint investors, delivering a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike (to 19.00%) today, and we think that it will keep monetary conditions tighter than most... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does Turkey need to do to bring inflation down? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) looks set to hike interest rates further this week, and the experience from other EMs suggests that it will need to keep real interest rates elevated for several years to... 15th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Turkish activity figures for January suggest that the economy held up relatively well despite the tightening of COVID-19 containment measures around the turn of the year. And there are encouraging... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 15.6% y/y in February, is likely to mark the peak and we expect inflation to fall steadily over the next six months or so. But... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2020) Turkey’s economy continued to recover in Q4 2020 and was one of the few economies around the world to grow over last year as a whole. But there are signs that activity faltered at the tail end of the... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish CBRT suggests Turkish lira may appreciate further The hawkish statement accompanying today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 17.0% supports our view that the rally in the lira has further to run... 18th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for December add to the evidence that the economic recovery slowed sharply at the tail end of 2020. This weakness has almost certainly carried... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
