Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs have persisted in recent weeks and, looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows over the coming months. The good news is that –... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow The Turkish lira has remained under significant pressure at the start of this week and there is a growing risk that the central bank’s continued obedience to pressure from President Erdogan for... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation worries mount, Turkish lira closing in on 10 Inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week provided for ugly viewing and with headline rates likely to rise further above central bank's targets in the coming months, this will keep... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) Turkey’s activity data for September were the proverbial mixed bag with industrial production falling back but retail sales putting in another robust performance. On balance, the data suggest that... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel passed a budget, hawks in flight, Turkey déjà vu The Israeli budgets for 2021 and 2022 passed this week – the first approved budgets in three years – don’t make a big difference to the direction of fiscal policy, but contain key reforms that may... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: comparisons with the 2018 currency crisis The economic and political backdrop in Turkey is eerily similar to that which preceded the currency crisis in 2018, although one key difference now is that the lira doesn’t appear to be fundamentally... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose further in October to reach 19.9% y/y but the small drop in core inflation and political pressure on the central bank means that further interest rate cuts lie in... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs in October showed that supply disruptions took a greater toll at the start of Q4, with industrial production growth in Turkey slowing and Czech industry likely to have... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s spat, Poland-EU dispute and the zloty A diplomatic spat between Turkey and its Western allies this week was quickly resolved, but it highlighted how vulnerable the lira is to geopolitical developments. And comments from Turkey’s central... 29th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere... 26th October 2021 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Update Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT now playing with fire after aggressive rate cut Any remaining confidence in the credibility of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) was shattered after today’s larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate cut, to 16.00%. The lira hit a fresh record low against... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
