Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign investors have been net sellers of EM assets for much of this year and tighter monetary policy in the US and a stronger dollar suggest that the environment for EMs next year will remain... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s crisis in four charts Following yesterday’s interest rate cut in Turkey, the lira has plunged again and is now faring worse than other Emerging Europe currencies have done during recent sudden stops. There are some signs... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland overheating fears, Turkey crisis rumbles on Concerns that Poland's economy is overheating will have only been reinforced by figures this week showing a surge in wage growth and a sharp widening of the current account deficit in October. Loose... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail to make a comeback in 2022 With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming... 16th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT continues to defy orthodoxy in face of lira crisis Turkey’s central bank shrugged off a currency crisis, rising inflation as well as the recent hawkish turn from the Fed and remained obedient to President Erdogan by cutting its one-week repo rate by... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy made a strong start to Q4, but these predate the recent currency crisis and we think the economy is likely to... 13th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine tensions and the latest sanctions threat The newswires have been abuzz this week with reports of a potential Russian military conflict with Ukraine and the US has threatened sanctions which, if imposed, would clearly cause pain for Russia's... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: five key questions (and answers) This Update answers some of the most common questions that we have received from clients during Turkey’s recent turmoil. In short, the economic fallout doesn’t look like it will be as bad as it was... 7th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Omicron & tightening cycles, Turkey into the unknown While a lot is still unknown about the Omicron variant, we don’t think it will prevent central banks from delivering further large interest rate hikes - Poland will be a case in point next week, where... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & the macro fallout from past “sudden stops” The history books show that currency crises in other parts of the emerging world in recent decades have resulted in peak-to-trough falls in GDP of around 8% on average and pushed headline inflation up... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 21.3% y/y in November will almost certainly be followed by further chunky increases over the coming months that take it to 25-30% as the effects of the... 3rd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Virus outbreaks diverge, but Omicron a renewed risk COVID-19 outbreaks in Central and Eastern Europe have diverged in the past month and that may continue in December, but the emergence of the potentially highly-transmissible Omicron variant could... 30th November 2021 · 16 mins read
