Emerging Europe Economics Weekly The hawks come out in their droves Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in June marks the start of a new phase of the disinflation process, and we are likely to see much steeper falls in the y/y inflation rate in July... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its main policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was widely expected, and the continued hawkish communications support our view that... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower... 21st June 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is... 6th June 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 75.45% y/y in May (consensus 74.8%) is slightly disappointing. It had looked like price pressures were easing in recent months, but the 3.4% m/m... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2024) The strength in Turkey’s economy in Q1 – GDP expanded by a whopping 2.4% q/q – was driven by a large boost from net trade while private consumption growth slowed sharply. This offers signs that the... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the Turkish lira turning a corner? Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency... 24th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (May) Turkey’s central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 50.00% again today and the statement continued to emphasise the need to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period. While the... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal tightening an important step forwards The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public sector construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
