Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion Governments in Central and Eastern Europe stepped up support this week for firms and households against surging inflation, but we don't think they will prevent some economies from contracting in Q2... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Turkey’s activity data for February point to a growing divergence between industry, which is being supported by a weak lira, and retail sales which continues to struggle in face of the surge in... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp rise to reach 61.1% y/y in March and it is likely to rise a bit further over the coming months. But there is still little sign that the central... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs declined across the region in March amid the war in Ukraine, and with supply chain disruptions and price pressures set to intensify, industry looks set to contract in the coming... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on... 30th March 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s latest activity figures confirm that the economy entered a downturn at the start of this year as the surge in inflation triggered a further drop in retail sales and weaker domestic demand... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate leapt again to reach 54.4% y/y in February due to the combination of the lira’s collapse in late-2021 as well as higher domestic energy prices and a large minimum wage... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2021) Turkey’s economy weathered the initial fallout from the currency crisis well, with GDP rising by 1.5% q/q in Q4 of last year, but a downturn is likely at the start of this year. The Russia-Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Omicron risks fading, but headwinds remain Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT defies inflation surge and leaves rates on hold The further rise in inflation to close to 50% y/y in January was clearly not enough to sway Turkey’s central bank (and crucially, President Erdogan) to shift back to orthodoxy as the one-week repo... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s latest activity figures suggest that easing supply constraints and the boost to competitiveness from a weak lira supported industry in December, but household spending suffered as the... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak lira boost missing, Poland-EU conflict hopes? The latest indicators raise concern that the boost to Turkey's external competitiveness from a weak lira may not be having the desired effect. Meanwhile, positive developments in Poland this week... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose to a stronger-than-expected 48.7% y/y in January due to the effects of the recent collapse in the lira and large hikes to energy tariffs and it is likely to stay... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
