Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s “new economic model” to amplify old problems The “new economic model” adopted by Turkey’s government is likely to mean low real interest rates and a persistently weak lira, but it will come alongside a shift towards capital controls, ever higher... 18th January 2022 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-NATO talks crumble, CBRT’s reserves plunge A tense week of negotiations between Russia, the US and NATO have ended with what now seems to be a more serious ratcheting up of tensions over Ukraine. It seems like that Russia’s recent belligerent... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November suggest that the economy held up relatively well in the middle of Q4. But the effects of the recent currency crisis are likely to... 13th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Istanbul industrial rental growth to slow sharply Despite tight supply and the boost to demand from e-commerce, we think Turkey’s recent currency crisis will further weigh on Istanbul industrial rents and that rental growth will slow sharply after... 23rd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme A new scheme announced by Turkey’s President Erdogan last night, which compensates holders of lira deposits for exchange rates losses, has triggered a sharp rally in the lira and will help to mitigate... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign investors have been net sellers of EM assets for much of this year and tighter monetary policy in the US and a stronger dollar suggest that the environment for EMs next year will remain... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s crisis in four charts Following yesterday’s interest rate cut in Turkey, the lira has plunged again and is now faring worse than other Emerging Europe currencies have done during recent sudden stops. There are some signs... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland overheating fears, Turkey crisis rumbles on Concerns that Poland's economy is overheating will have only been reinforced by figures this week showing a surge in wage growth and a sharp widening of the current account deficit in October. Loose... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail to make a comeback in 2022 With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming... 16th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT continues to defy orthodoxy in face of lira crisis Turkey’s central bank shrugged off a currency crisis, rising inflation as well as the recent hawkish turn from the Fed and remained obedient to President Erdogan by cutting its one-week repo rate by... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
