Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation at 70%, lira tumbling – but still CBRT holds Despite the backdrop of inflation at 70% and the lira falling by falling by 10% against the dollar this month, Turkey’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 14.00% today. So long as President... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas supplies at risk, CNB shake-up, Turkey FX restrictions Russia’s sanctions on European energy companies and the closure of the Sokhranivka transit point in Ukraine this week are a sign that the risk of energy supply disruptions in Central and Eastern... 13th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) Turkey’s activity data for March suggest that the economy held up better than expected in Q1 as a weak lira appears to have supported industry, while policies to preserve households’ purchasing power... 13th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira stability may give way to further pronounced weakness We think that the surprising stability of the Turkish lira so far this year will not last much longer and we forecast it to weaken against the dollar over the coming months, from ~14.8/$ now to 18/$... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp increase to 70.0% y/y in April and there’s a strong chance that it moves beyond its peak in the early 2000s in the coming months. Despite this... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit is a growing risk Spillovers from the war in Ukraine are likely to cause Turkey’s current account deficit to widen to more than 4% of GDP this year. In the recent past, deficits of this scale have tended to precede... 25th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion Governments in Central and Eastern Europe stepped up support this week for firms and households against surging inflation, but we don't think they will prevent some economies from contracting in Q2... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Turkey’s activity data for February point to a growing divergence between industry, which is being supported by a weak lira, and retail sales which continues to struggle in face of the surge in... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp rise to reach 61.1% y/y in March and it is likely to rise a bit further over the coming months. But there is still little sign that the central... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs declined across the region in March amid the war in Ukraine, and with supply chain disruptions and price pressures set to intensify, industry looks set to contract in the coming... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on... 30th March 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
