Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Turkey fell to 55.2% y/y in February, but underlying price pressures remain strong and the disinflation process appears to be happening more slowly than had been expected. Inflation will... 3rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2022) Turkey’s economy expanded by 0.9% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q4, but growth remained unbalanced as it was driven largely by private consumption while net trade provided a sizable drag. We think growth will... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack One year into the war in Ukraine The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s earthquake, Russia’s budget, CEE inflation While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Dec.) The rebound in industrial production in Turkey in December and the strength of retail sales in recent months point to an expansion of GDP in the order of 0.5-1.0% q/q in Q4. Activity will be disrupted... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s earthquakes The recent earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria are a human tragedy and foremost in everyone’s minds. Nonetheless, the financial markets will also need to bear in mind the economic cost and, to the... 7th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs for January rose in most countries and add to evidence from other surveys that, while economies in Central and Eastern Europe may struggle in the early part of this year, the... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly “Lira-isation” drive deepens, MNB’s hawkish stance Turkish policymakers deepened their "lira-isation" drive this week by increasing the incentive for firms to convert their FX earnings into lira, but we're not convinced that the policy changes will be... 27th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook brightens, but tough times still ahead The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
