Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Manufacturing PMIs for September were a mixed bag, but continued to paint a weak picture of industrial activity in Turkey, Czechia and Poland in Q3. In contrast, the downturn in Russian industry... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s mobilisation, external conditions tighten President Putin's "partial mobilisation" of Russian military reservists this week as part of its ongoing war with Ukraine could have important macro implications for Russia's economy through... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures showing signs of easing Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price... 22nd September 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) 22nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkey’s activity figures for July showed m/m declines in both industrial production and retail sales and suggest that the period of strong growth during the summer may be coming to an end. And with... 13th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation hit 80.2% y/y in Turkey in August, breaching 80% for the first time since 1998. Even so, the central bank is likely to remain beholden to President Erdogan’s wishes for looser policy and it... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2022) Turkey’s economy posted another robust quarter of growth in Q2, with GDP rising by 2.1% q/q, as stronger consumption and exports more than offset weaker investment. But strong growth is merely adding... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s gas crisis deepens, CBRT financial repression? The latest surge in European wholesale gas and electricity prices has pushed governments to step up policy support to households and shore up energy supplies ahead of winter. Many economies are... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT plays with fire, Poland’s GDP shocker The surprise interest rate cut by Turkey's central bank this week, despite inflation reaching close to 80% y/y in July, threatens to sow the seeds of the next currency crisis. The banking sector... 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT rate cut sowing the seeds of next currency crisis Turkey’s central bank stepped up its fight against economic orthodoxy by cutting its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, despite the backdrop of inflation at 80% and an extremely poor external... 18th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkey’s activity figures for June painted a mixed picture, with industrial production continuing to post solid growth but retail sales suffering a fresh knock. The bigger picture, however, is that... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The modest rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 79.6% y/y in July suggests that inflation is nearing a peak, but it will remain close to these very high rates for several more months and will... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Manufacturing PMIs for July fell to levels consistent with contractions in industrial production in Q3, with the exception of in Russia, where the downturn in manufacturing seems to have stabilised... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
