Event EM Drop-In: Turkey’s make or break election 10th May 2023, 2:00PM BST It's crunch time for Turkey, with parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May offering voters a clear choice between a way back from the unorthodox policies of Recep Tayyip Erdogan or a...
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Turkey fell a bit more than expected in April, to 43.7% y/y, driven largely by a sharp decline in energy inflation, but m/m price growth remained strong and the disinflation process will... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2023) & Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The 0.1% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q1 means that the economy avoided remaining in a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, but we think that growth will still disappoint consensus... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation past the peak, but big challenges lie ahead Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB shifting to cuts, Turkey bracing for election result The Hungarian central bank (MNB) looks set to take its first steps towards lowering interest rates at its meeting next week by cutting the upper end of its interest rate corridor. Policymakers will... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: current account improvement to continue Large current account deficits across CEE have started to narrow in recent months and we think that this will continue as slowing economies and lower energy prices shrink import bills. This will... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Feb.) Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for February showed that the impact of the earthquakes on the economy was larger than we and most others had anticipated. But we think this will... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Turkey CPI (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs for March were weak in Czechia and Poland and suggest that industry remained in recessionary territory in Q1. But there were some bright spots, including the marked improvement in... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Dodging a deep downturn, but challenges far from over There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect... 30th March 2023 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Global bank turmoil another headwind to Em Europe The turmoil in the global banking sector has not spread to Emerging Europe, but the focus is back on the health of the region’s banks given the not-so-distant memory of the 2008/09 banking crises that... 23rd March 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks in better shape, but external risks still high Turkey’s banking sector has been one of the weak links in the EM world in recent years due to its very high external debt burden. The good news is that banks have paid down these external debts and... 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly SVB, Credit Suisse & the potential implications for EE Economies in Emerging Europe (EE) are particularly vulnerable to a sharp weakening of capital inflows if concerns about the health of the global banking system were to escalate. Investors revised down... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Jan.) The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
