Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost The risks posed by Turkey’s heavy dependence on foreign capital inflows came to a head this month, with the lira falling the furthest of any EM currency in November. This has been driven in part by... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Ukraine’s recent recovery Ukraine’s economy has seen rare good news over the past month as the IMF released additional funding after a long delay and recent data showed that growth strengthened. Nonetheless, there has been no... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again It’s been a very calm month for financial markets in most of Emerging Europe. One exception, however, is Ukraine where renewed tensions with Russia have caused the currency to weaken and dollar bond... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Ukraine still needs the IMF At first sight, the sharp fall in Ukraine’s current account deficit over the past few years suggests that the economy’s external vulnerabilities have diminished significantly. But that masks the fact... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Ukraine’s political crisis re-escalates Political tensions have once again come to the fore in Ukraine, putting the country’s IMF programme at risk. Although the government survived a no confidence vote, the ruling coalition has fallen... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds rally on debt deal Ukraine’s debt-restructuring deal has led to a rally in the country’s bond market and eased pressure on the hryvnia . Meanwhile, although most of the region’s equity markets have fallen over the past... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) Economic Sentiment Indicators strengthened in most countries across Emerging Europe this month, suggesting that the region continued to grow at a healthy pace in the third quarter. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Equities weaken, bond yields rise Financial markets in Emerging Europe have generally performed poorly over the past month, with equities having dropped back and the region’s bonds having been hit by the sell-off in developed... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring: what to make of the latest moves The latest developments regarding Ukraine’s debt restructuring, including a law passed by parliament today which allows the government to renege on payments if needed, are themselves of little... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shaping up well at the start of 2015 Despite concerns about deflation, a recession in Russia and sluggishness in the euro-zone, the latest data out of Central Europe have been surprisingly robust. Industrial production growth has... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds fall further as debt talks start The start of debt restructuring negotiations in Ukraine has been accompanied by further losses on the country’s foreign currency government bonds. Meanwhile, currencies in Central Europe have weakened... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
