China Chart Pack China’s spending stimulus is smaller than it seems (Apr 09) On the eve of the G20 meeting, the received wisdom is that China has responded more forcefully to the global crisis than most others. The government budget has indeed turned sharply into deficit, but... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Too soon to expect a rebound in China (Feb 09) A surge in bank lending in China has raised confidence that the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy are already bearing fruit. Shares prices in Shanghai have risen 22% since the start of the... 24th February 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Growth halved and heading to 5% (Jan 09) China’s economic growth rate has halved in 18 months. We estimate that GDP increased by little more than 6% y/y in the fourth quarter after 9% in the third and a peak of 12.6% in the second quarter of... 24th January 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Will the stimulus come too late? (Dec 08) A run of poor data and doubts about the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus plans have prompted us to cut our 2009 GDP growth forecast for China from 8% to 7%. Admittedly, the government’s... 24th December 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China moves to arrest slowdown (Nov 08) Global financial market turmoil and the dollar rebound have been reflected in further equity market weakness in China and in a surge in the renminbi’s tradeweighted exchange rate. But global weakness... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Fall in renminbi appreciation expectations is overdone (Aug 08) Officials at the People’s Bank of China should be feeling pretty pleased with themselves. Market expectations for future renminbi appreciation have tumbled following a month of slower currency gains... 24th August 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Chinese equity investors floundering again (Jun 08) China’s equity investors have been left stunned by a 20% fall in prices since the beginning of June. This has taken the benchmark Shanghai Composite index beneath the 3000 level that many investors... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Chinese equity investors floundering again (May 08) China’s headline inflation eased in March, but there are worrying signs that price pressures may be spreading beyond food. The activity data confirm that the economy remains strong, easing at least... 24th May 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Consumption rebounds (Feb 08) After several years during which wages have grown more slowly than the economy, consumption accounted for barely a third of overall Chinese demand in 2007. But there are a couple of reasons to think... 24th February 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China’s poorest get an income boost (Nov 07) Continued high inflation is a worry for China’s monetary policy-makers. But higher prices have helped many food producers: real incomes are now growing faster in rural areas than in the cities... 26th November 2007 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China’s export ambitions take a hit (Sep 07) The biggest winners from the recent spate of scares over Chinese exports may be Chinese consumers, who have long dealt with product safety concerns far more serious than those experienced in export... 26th September 2007 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Higher inflation does not mean China is overheating (Aug 07) Expectation-beating GDP numbers and rapid inflation have again provoked talk of a hard landing for China. However growth close to current rates still looks sustainable. Inflation will probably climb... 26th August 2007 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China shows first signs of domestic rebalancing (Jul 07) China’s economy does not seem to be slowing, but there are tentative signs that a long-awaited rebalancing of domestic demand from investment to consumption is underway. China’s external imbalance –... 26th July 2007 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Chinese inflation is under control (Jun 07) The boom in Chinese stocks and, now, a sudden spike in pork prices have been interpreted by some as evidence that the authorities are losing the battle to prevent China’s huge export earnings feeding... 26th June 2007 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Hot, but not overheating (Apr 07) China’s economy surged ahead in the first quarter with investment, consumption and trade all stronger than expected or (with the exception of consumption) hoped for. As if on cue, March inflation... 26th April 2007 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Surge in trade surplus may only be temporary (Mar 07) The surge in China’s trade surplus in January and February grabbed the headlines. But we suspect that the jump in export growth was at least partly driven by firms bringing shipments forward to avoid... 26th March 2007 · 1 min read
