China Economics Update Hong Kong facing a difficult year ahead Hong Kong escaped falling into recession in the third quarter, but the economy remains very weak. Given our forecast that global growth will slow further next year, and the risks of a local property... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Smaller firms feel tightening squeeze China’s attempts to rein in off-balance-sheet lending by banks have compounded the difficulties faced by smaller firms that were already cut off from formal credit channels. Net new bank lending last... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Global weakness to drag on growth While pessimism has been growing about the world economy, the last month’s data from China have actually not been that bad. But China’s economy is weaker today than on the eve of the global crisis... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi spurt revives talk of currency reform The renminbi has retreated after gaining 0.6% against the dollar in two days earlier in August, damping hopes that faster movement would be sustained in the months to come. But the unusually-abrupt... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still-rising pork prices add to near-term inflation risks Pork prices continued to rise in the first half of July. But the pace at which they are rising has slowed. Pig numbers are picking up – helped in part by high prices – and the government is releasing... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Equity markets may be turning the corner After falling for two months, Chinese equities have clawed back some of their losses in the last few days. We think that the recovery in equity prices has much further to go. 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Power shortages unlikely to undermine growth Power shortages are adding to investor concerns about the outlook for China’s growth. The main problem is that the government has not allowed regulated electricity prices to increase in line with the... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong Hong Kong growth stokes property bubble fears Hong Kong is on course for another year of above-trend growth after a strong performance in Q1, but its property bubble is growing. Prices could plausibly halve if buyers started to question how long... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China’s dollar dilemma unresolved S&P’s decision to put a negative outlook on the US’s AAA credit rating will have been greeted with wry smiles in Beijing. Officials there have long been of the view that US policymakers cannot be... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Households on the back foot The recent data suggest that China’s households are increasingly reluctant to spend. Real retail sales growth slumped to a five-year low in the first two months of 2011. Other measures of household... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property bubble growing Hong Kong’s economy is growing at a healthy pace but residential property looks increasingly overvalued and today’s budget underlines that the government has few effective means to help. 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Revamped data show property prices still rising slowly Much of the initial reaction to China’s new property price statistics has focused on the fact that property prices are “still rising”. But the median increase in new residential prices among the... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Banks squeezed by reserve ratio hikes Interbank rates have spiked to multi-year highs ahead of Chinese New Year. This partly reflects seasonal factors, but also that successive required reserve ratio (RRR) hikes are squeezing banks’... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Markets rethink policy outlook Markets have scaled back their expectations for policy tightening in China as senior officials have made clear that they see no need for a major policy shift. The government’s stance is based in part... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Inflation returns to top of policy agenda (Nov 10) Inflation has risen faster than anticipated over the last few months and is now the primary concern of both policymakers and markets. A tight credit quota seems likely for 2011 – perhaps RMB6.5trn... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much longer will Hong Kong hold on to its dollar peg? The viability of Hong Kong’s dollar peg is again in question although the evidence linking recent asset price movements to the peg is weaker than many think. In any case, none of the alternatives to... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
