China Economics Update Hong Kong's economy should rebound from Q2 drop Hong Kong's economy contracted in the second quarter, due to weak domestic demand and services exports, but an expected pick-up in the global economy should underpin a rebound over the coming quarters... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the level of borrowing costs in China a problem? Cuts to benchmark interest rates could end up doing more harm than good to China’s economy. Policymakers worried about elevated financing costs in the corporate sector would do better to focus on... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shanghai equities on a tear Equities in China have soared in recent days as sentiment about the economy’s prospects has warmed. But we don’t expect the rally to be sustained. 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the anti-corruption campaign mean for the economy? China’s anti-corruption campaign has claimed its biggest scalp to date with today’s formal announcement of an investigation into former Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang. Over the past 18 months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Mixed ownership no guarantee of stronger performance Six state-owned firms were named last week to take part in pilot reforms intended to boost state sector performance, partly by encouraging private investment. The experiment could have far-reaching... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Upward pressure on renminbi is building The renminbi has been allowed to strengthen by 0.5% against the dollar so far this month. A rebounding trade surplus will, in our view, force the People’s Bank to tolerate further gains in the months... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack FX accumulation by firms allows PBOC to step back The People’s Bank (PBOC) further reduced its foreign exchange purchases to around $6bn in May, the lowest in almost a year. Given last month’s large trade surplus, this might suggest that capital... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack NPL ratio remains low but is set to climb Rising non-performing loans (NPLs) at Chinese banks have been making headlines recently. So far the increase has not been much to get excited about. Official data suggest the NPL ratio has barely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 14) Hong Kong’s economy slowed sharply in Q1, due to a slump in exports. However, the slowdown is likely to prove temporary, and we expect growth to rebound over the coming quarters as the global economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a further slowdown in growth threaten employment? In recent months, Chinese policymakers have stressed repeatedly that employment growth, rather than rapid GDP growth, is their number one priority. This has led to speculation about how fast the... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further RMB weakening tests the PBOC’s nerves After large-scale intervention succeeded in weakening the renminbi and rattling many investors, there are tentative signs that the People’s Bank is now trying to introduce some stability. 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Oversupply weighs on property sector The outlook for China’s property sector is increasingly gloomy. The usual rebound in sales after Chinese New Year has been feeble, and the glut of unsold properties on developers’ books continues to... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Four risks to watch out for in Emerging Asia Our recently published Emerging Asia Outlook paints a fairly benign picture of the region’s growth prospects, with most economies set to make a gradual recovery in 2014-15. This Weekly looks at some... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A new route for foreigners to invest in China’s equities The introduction of a new scheme allowing global investors to access Shanghai’s equity market is China’s latest step to relax controls on its cross-border capital flows. The announcement gave a brief... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Liquidity tightens again The renminbi weakened against the dollar in March for a second month in a row but it is still one of the emerging world’s better performing currencies over the past year. Meanwhile, a renewed... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Hand of People’s Bank seen in currency fall A rare trade deficit in February relieved some of the upward pressure on therenminbi, but the latest data suggest that the People’s Bank (PBOC) additionally purchased around $25bn of foreign exchange... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
