China Economics Update Equities surge following rate cut The recent benchmark rate cut triggered sharp gains in China’s stock markets in the last week of November. Meanwhile, although trading volumes in the newly-launched Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC may be resuming FX intervention There are tentative signs that the People’s Bank (PBOC) has resumed currency intervention. Foreign exchange purchases by all financial institutions, a proxy for purchases by the PBOC, turned positive... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Today’s GDP figures show that Hong Kong’s economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, on the back of big increases in consumption and exports. Although growth will probably weaken again in Q4... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China Watch - Labour market remaining resilient despite property gloom The outlook for China’s economy and for economic policy will be determined by what happens to the property sector and to employment. Despite the latest increase in support for property, the outlook... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bank lending under pressure from new deposit rules New rules requiring banks to ensure that deposits at the end of each month deviate by no more than 3% from the monthly average are a new headwind for China’s economy. The rules are designed to prevent... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Occupy Central” not the only headwind to Hong Kong’s economy The demonstrations in Hong Kong are taking their toll on the economy, with the retail sector so far bearing the brunt. But even if the protests die down, the ongoing corruption crackdown in China and... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady, if unspectacular, growth ahead Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to see growth accelerate gradually over the next year, helped by a combination of stronger demand from advanced economies and relatively loose monetary... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong matter to China? The economic fallout from a further escalation of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong would not be limited to the territory. Indeed, it is important not to underestimate the potential costs to... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Protests overshadow equity opening in Hong Kong October’s launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has been eagerly awaited since it was announced earlier in the year. Now it risks being overshadowed by political unrest that raises... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What next for Hong Kong? With thousands of pro-democracy protestors blockading the streets of Hong Kong’s main business district, the territory’s political crisis is showing no sign of dying down. The economy, which is... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit growth in Emerging Asia still unsustainable We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided. While there are encouraging signs that... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More targeted support for small firms Although liquidity operations by the PBOC have received the most attention this week, further measures to support small firms that were announced by the State Council on Wednesday are arguably more... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Property price bubbles a key risk There are signs property prices are coming off the boil in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. That said, prices in these three economies still look significantly overvalued, and a slump in prices... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi regaining lost ground Renminbi appreciation is back in full swing but upwards momentum in Chinese equities appears to have faltered in August following a string of weak data releases. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia has less to fear from Fed tightening The trend over the past year in most of Emerging Asia has been towards bigger current account surpluses or smaller deficits. This should make their currencies less vulnerable to any negative shifts in... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Constraints on banks, not demand, behind loan slump A record RMB2.0trn fall in bank deposits in July, which put pressure on banks’ loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs), appears to have been the main factor behind last month’s weakness in lending. LDRs are a... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
