China Economics Update Severe demographic headwinds to hold back Hong Kong Hong Kong has both the highest life expectancy and the lowest birth rate in the world. One consequence is that Hong Kong’s working age population is set to decline by more than that of any other... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Apr.) A fall in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in April has been more than offset by higher imports of the metal by India. Hence, we believe fears of a slowdown in demand from key emerging... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property to remain a drag despite stronger sales Growth in property sales returned to positive territory for the first time in over ayear last month, helped by lower mortgage rates and a loosening of purchasecontrols. But hopes that this marks the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor The worst may be over Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) confirms that growth weakened further last month. But with the recent step-up in policy support likely to shore up economic activity in coming months this could be about... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy remained subdued in Q1, although growth picked up slightly compared to the previous quarter. We expect growth to stage a stronger recovery over coming quarters, supported by a... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC steps up policy support Sunday’s cut to the required reserve ratio for China’s banks signals a stepping-up of policy support. The 100bp cut was double the usual size and the first move on this scale since late 2008. It is... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will curb on visitors hurt Hong Kong’s economy? New restrictions on the number of visits mainland residents can make to Hong Kong will affect only a small proportion of visitors to the territory. The retail sector will be put under further pressure... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly AIIB – what is all the fuss about? Poor infrastructure is likely to remain a key constraint on economic development across large parts of Emerging Asia over the next decade. For all the headlines, the Asian Infrastructure Investment... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers strike sanguine note If there is one key message on the economy to take away from the National People’s Congress it is that the government is aware of downside risks to growth but confident that it has the tools and the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong set for rebound in the year of the sheep Hong Kong’s government has unveiled a budget that should help boost growth this year. There are other reasons to be optimistic about the outlook too, even though today’s GDP data confirmed that growth... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong survive a property market collapse? Property prices in Hong Kong have risen to record highs on the back of accommodative monetarypolicy in the US and strong demand from mainland China. With the Federal Reserve set to tightenpolicy this... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack New evidence of PBOC intervention to support renminbi Data for January showed Chinese banks continuing to sell FX to the non-bank sector last month. This has a few implications. First, the fact that banks were net sellers despite a record trade surplus... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength puts exporters under pressure China’s exporters continued to gain global market share last year but the recent sharp rise in the renminbi against other emerging market currencies is likely to put them under pressure in 2015. US... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How durable is the Hong Kong peg? The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision last week to abandon its exchange rate ceiling has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. While the peg creates a number of problems, it... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Lower oil prices to support growth The recent sharp drop in global oil prices is a positive development for Emerging Asia. It will support growth in most economies and will put downward pressure on inflation, providing scope for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
