Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet be forced to cut rates below 1.5% The Reserve Bank of Australia used its new Statement on Monetary Policy to suggest that it hasn’t got much appetite for cutting interest rates below 1.5%, although its own inflation forecasts suggest... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected rise in real retail sales in the second quarter points to a slowdown in consumption growth and adds to the mounting evidence that GDP growth weakened significantly, perhaps to... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rates in Australia may yet have to fall to 1.0% If it is going to weaken the Australian dollar to help solve its low inflation problem, the Reserve Bank of Australia may have to follow today’s 0.25% interest rate cut to a new record low of 1.5%... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Jun.) The weak outlook for inflation is enough on its own to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates to 1.5% at the policy meeting later today, but mounting evidence that economic growth lost a lot of momentum... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to reach new record lows We believe that a new era of stubbornly low underlying inflation will prompt policymakers to cut interest rates in Australia from 1.75% now to 1.00% next year and to reduce rates in New Zealand from 2... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bigger picture on inflation Australia’s inflation data for the second quarter provided something for everyone, but the bigger picture is that there is very little price pressure anywhere in the economy. This is why we believe... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Mixed inflation figures won’t prevent cut to 1.50% While the second-quarter inflation figures were somewhat mixed, we still expect that the most likely outcome at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd August is an interest rate... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The CPI inflation data for the second quarter makes next Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting a closer call than had looked likely, but we still think the RBA will pull the trigger and cut interest rates to 1... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two things the RBA could learn from the RBNZ The recent experience of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides two lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia. First, don’t dither when it comes to making decisions otherwise you’ll be punished by a... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Shrugging off global and domestic uncertainty The early evidence suggests that businesses and households in Australia have not been ruffled by the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Australia’s close Federal election result. Admittedly, consumer... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The part-time problem Most of the rise in the share of people working part-time is due to long-term factors that have improved the flexibility of Australia’s labour market. However, some of it is due to weak economic... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun.) Although the labour market is probably a bit weaker than June’s figures suggest, we’re not too concerned when the forward-looking indicators remain healthy. That said, the high share of part-time... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Much like financial markets and businesses, the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in July suggests that households have been largely unaffected by the significant political uncertainty... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter While we doubt that the loss of Australia’s AAA credit rating would be followed by a rise in borrowing costs for the government, states and banks, it would nonetheless highlight that the burden to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loss of AAA rating wouldn't raise borrowing costs S&P’s decision to revise Australia’s AAA credit rating from stable to negative is another political blow for the Coalition, but it doesn’t mean much for the financial markets, the States or the banks 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not too worried by political uncertainty By leaving interest rates at 1.75% and not providing a very strong hint that they will be cut in August, the Reserve Bank of Australia today implied that the recent financial market volatility and... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
