RBA Watch Rates to fall to 1.0% in the second half of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th February, but its new forecasts to be published in the Statement on... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators getting a bit too giddy While the fourth-quarter inflation figures received most of the attention in the last week, growth in the Westpac leading index reached a three-year high and it is consistent with a sharp rebound in... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4) The rebound in headline inflation in the fourth quarter of last year has been baked in the cake for some time, so the real news is that underlying inflation hardly budged at all. A continuation of... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack External sector won’t fuel a rapid rebound The Australian economy has started to reap some benefits from the rise in key commodity prices towards the end of last year. Most obviously, the trade balance has swung into surplus for the first... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) While the labour market improved in December from the weakness of the third quarter, it remained worryingly fragile. This is one reason to expect 2017 to be another disappointing year for the overall... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence remained essentially unchanged in January, which was a disappointing result given that local equity prices have recently risen rapidly. That said, confidence... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much will housing help? After contributing 0.5 percentage points to the annual rate of GDP growth in Australia in each of the past two years, it looks as though dwellings investment will add almost nothing to growth this... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) While the slower-than-expected growth in retail sales in November does suggest that the household sector may have lost a bit of momentum late in the fourth quarter, the strong start to the quarter... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov.) The first trade surplus since March 2014 isn’t quite as good as it looks as it’s due to a surge in the prices of exports rather than the volume of exports. This means that net exports were probably... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar decline is not as good as it looks The recent weakening in the Australian dollar to a seven-month low against the US dollar won’t boost activity and inflation by as much as you may think as it has not been matched by a weakening in the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes and risks for 2017 The range of possible economic outcomes for next year are wider than usual and it is possible that 2017 proves to be a sweet spot for both Australia and New Zealand. But it seems more likely that a... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rising risk of recession The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter and the weak tone of October’s international trade data have raised the chances that Australia will experience its first recession in 25 years. We wouldn... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Balancing the budget will be more painful The ratings agencies have shown that they are full of Christmas cheer by maintaining Australia’s AAA credit rating even though the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook revealed that the budget deficit... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly AAA – Going, going, gone? Even if the ratings agencies were to take away Australia’s AAA credit rating immediately after the publication of the Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Monday, which we suspect will reveal that... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
