Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q4) While there is some tentative evidence that non-mining business investment is rising, it certainly isn’t rising as fast as widely hoped. This doesn’t surprise us as we’ve been saying for a long time... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly State infrastructure spending offsetting Federal inaction You’d be forgiven for thinking that given the Federal government’s desire for fiscal restraint, Australia is unlikely to follow Trump’s lead on public infrastructure. But State governments are... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Is the RBA’s optimism signal or spin? There is definitely a role for the Reserve Bank of Australia to manage expectations by signalling where it thinks the economy is heading. But by sounding more optimistic than its own forecasts, there... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan.) January’s labour market figures highlight that jobs growth has sustained its recent momentum, but the now-familiar problem of the new jobs being mostly part-time ones rather than full-time ones also... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rebound in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in February and the surge in the NAB measure of business confidence in January suggests that any lingering concerns over the outright fall in... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more concerned about investor lending In February’s Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank of Australia drew particular attention to the recent pick up in mortgage lending to investors. Given its concerns, if investor lending... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA plots near-perfect projections The new forecasts published in February’s Statement of Monetary Policy show that the RBA is largely expecting Australia’s slow growth and low underlying inflation problems to be solved over the next... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Recession or rapid recovery? We wouldn’t rule it out completely, but it is looking less likely that Australia fell into its first recession since 1991 at the end of last year. However, a sustained period of stronger growth is not... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Gambling on growth We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia is being too complacent in expecting GDP growth to be close to 3% over the next couple of years and underlying inflation to rise to 2.0%. So while the RBA... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec.) The rise in real retail sales in the fourth quarter suggests that real consumption growth rebounded, but the outright fall in nominal sales in December reveals a worrying lack of momentum heading into... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The anatomy of the record trade surplus The roots of the swing in Australia’s international trade balance from a record deficit at the end of 2015 to a record surplus in December 2016 lie firmly in the huge rise in commodity prices rather... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Dec.) The surge in the trade surplus to a record high in December shows that the rise in commodity prices is boosting the economy and it has dramatically reduced the chances that Australia fell into a... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates to fall to 1.0% in the second half of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th February, but its new forecasts to be published in the Statement on... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators getting a bit too giddy While the fourth-quarter inflation figures received most of the attention in the last week, growth in the Westpac leading index reached a three-year high and it is consistent with a sharp rebound in... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
