RBA Watch The RBA’s primary concern may soon change Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday 4th April won’t be very exciting, as the RBA will leave interest rates at 1.5% for the sixth meeting in a row, events over the next month... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Banks and their net interest margins Although Australian banks will probably soon be hit by more stringent mortgage lending rules, they can take some comfort from an interest rate environment that will probably be fairly favourable over... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia won’t stay ahead for long The rebound in GDP growth in Australia in the fourth quarter and the easing in New Zealand appear to imply that the neighbouring nations are experiencing a change of fortunes. But we doubt this is a... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q4) The acceleration in house price inflation in the fourth quarter of last year has undoubtedly continued into the start of this year and will remain a thorn in the side of the Reserve Bank of Australia... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has house price inflation reached its peak? House prices in Australia are rising at their fastest pace since 2010 and the recent surge in auction clearance rates suggests that a further pick-up is on the cards. However, most other leading... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The stronger than expected rise in the unemployment rate and the pick-up in the underutilisation rate, which is a broader measure of spare capacity, suggests that there is still plenty of slack in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar.) While the Westpac consumer confidence headline index held steady in March, the further weakening in confidence surrounding the housing market is consistent with an easing in house price inflation in... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia and three big global uncertainties An easing in economic growth in China coupled with the downside risks to Australia posed by the potential policies of President Trump will mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t follow the US... 12th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA remains more optimistic than most The statement released after the Reserve Bank of Australia today left interest rates at 1.5% remained fairly balanced, but recent speeches have made it clear that the RBA doesn’t intend to cut... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan.) The 0.4% m/m rise in retail sales in January was a welcome sight following the outright fall in sales in December, but it doesn’t change the bigger picture that with wage growth likely to remain close... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income recession to income boom If the falls in the various measures of national income in Australia in 2015 constituted an income recession, then the surge in the fourth quarter of last year looks like a mini income boom. Whether... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The sharp drop in the trade surplus in January suggests that net exports will provide a sizeable drag on growth in the current quarter. And while rising consumption goods imports suggest that the... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe may have to soften his stance later this year Recent comments by Governor Lowe have made it pretty clear that the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t intend to cut interest rates further, including at its next policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th March... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The decent rebound in real GDP in the fourth quarter doesn’t just dash any lingering fears that Australia was in a recession, but it also boosts hopes that the surge in commodity prices will trigger a... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
