Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s low inflation fears fade The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the eighth meeting in a row today and we doubt it will be in a position to raise rates until at least 2019. There is still a risk... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The inflation worm has turned The recent rises in underlying inflation suggest that the period of extremely low inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has come to an end. Underlying inflation, which excludes the temporary... 1st May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Real wages squeezed by rising price of essentials The rise in inflation in Australia in the first quarter was good news as it suggests the period of very low inflation is now over. But it is also bad news as it means prices are now rising faster than... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why we are no longer expecting more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd May and, in a change to our central forecast, we now no longer expect it to cut... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Underlying inflation in Australia is by no means strong but, when coupled with the RBA’s financial stability concerns, it doesn’t appear to be weak enough to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning (a bit) hawkish on New Zealand The period of ultra-low inflation in New Zealand is well and truly over. While we still believe that the financial markets are too hawkish in expecting the official cash rate to start rising this year... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the surge in employment a sign of things to come? We doubt that the surge in Australian employment in March will mark the beginning of a sustained rebound in employment growth. Indeed, a deeper dive into the latest employment trends in different... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) The huge leap in employment in March looks suspicious to us and we think the stagnation in the unemployment rate at a 14-month high of 5.9% is a better signal of the state of the labour market. That... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Australia won’t benefit much from global recovery The latest data suggest that we are right to be more downbeat than most on the outlook for Australia this year but more upbeat than most on the prospects for New Zealand. While both economies will... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence nudged down only slightly in April, which is a welcome sight following the recent string of disappointingly weak data on household spending. That said... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has the weakening in retail spending got further to run? The outright fall in retail sales values in February raises fresh concerns about the health of the retail sector. Admittedly, some of the recent weakness is due to temporary factors. But there are... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A subtle shift in the RBA’s rhetoric The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was always going to leave interest rates at 1.5% today, but there are some subtle signs that the Bank is becoming more concerned about the outlook for the labour... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The rebound in the trade surplus is mainly due to the reversal of the distortion caused by Chinese New Year that suppressed the surplus in January. But with commodity prices having started to edge... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & Building Approvals (Feb.) The outright fall in retail sales values in February adds to growing evidence that real consumption growth probably eased in the first quarter, while the latest news on the housing market has remained... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The economic consequences of Cyclone Debbie The recent damage caused by Cyclone Debbie is clearly devastating for those households and businesses in Queensland that have been most affected. And it will leave a fairly large dent in Queensland’s... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tighter mortgage lending rules raise chances of more rate cuts Today’s announcement that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has introduced tighter mortgage lending rules will go some way to addressing the RBA’s concerns about the overheating housing... 31st March 2017 · 2 mins read
