Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2024)

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Downturn in homebuilding has much further to run

The blowout in the pipeline of unfinished houses during the pandemic will reverse by the end of this year. With building approvals very low, dwellings investment will therefore fall further. While...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA on an extended pause, budget in the spotlight

Although the RBA left rates unchanged at its meeting this week, Governor Bullock stated that the Board was prepared to raise rates if it had to. Against this backdrop, there have been concerns from...

10th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA continues to eye its so-called “narrow path”

The RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold at its meeting today suggests that there is a high bar for any further tightening of monetary policy. Indeed, the Board seems keen on minimising the...

7th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2024)

7th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet

New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with...

3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.)

The housing rebound that began early last year continued to lose momentum in April. With affordability likely to remain stretched for the foreseeable future, house price growth will only ease further...

1st May 2024 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to...

30th April 2024 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2024)

The weakness in retail sales last month suggests that sales volumes fell across Q1 as a whole. However, with households’ real incomes staging a recovery, consumer spending should pick up over the...

30th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

The shortfalls of the Monthly CPI Indicator

The different treatment of prices collected annually is a key reason why the quarterly CPI measure rose much faster last quarter than the Monthly CPI Indicator had indicated. While it’s possible to...

29th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA more likely to hike than not

The case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. Underlying inflation is all but certain to overshoot its current forecast. Services inflation, which has long been a concern...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2024)

With price pressures proving inordinately resilient, there is little scope for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start loosening policy in the near future.

24th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Interest rate purgatory to continue for a while

Much to the RBNZ's chagrin, inflation in New Zealand continued to have a four handle last quarter. The main culprit was non-tradables inflation, which remained uncomfortably high, at 5.8%. With the...

19th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Mar. 24)

The modest rise in unemployment last month doesn’t change the bigger picture that Australia’s labour market is firing on all cylinders. That being the case, the RBA will be in no rush to pivot to...

18th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Productivity malaise may last until end of this decade

Weak capital spending is a key reason for Australia’s poor productivity performance. While investment growth has been strong recently, we think it will take until the second half of this decade before...

15th April 2024 · 4 mins read