Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s fears about household indebtedness persist The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting today and retained its fairly optimistic tone on the outlook for economic growth in the... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) The stronger than expected rise in retail sales values in May, alongside the surge in sales in April, suggests that real consumption growth accelerated in the second quarter. That said, we doubt this... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slow wage growth to persist despite strong job growth While the recent run of positive news on the health of the Australian labour market is certainly encouraging, it doesn’t alter the bigger picture that there is still plenty of spare capacity. This... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Growth to remain subdued in Australia While GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand in the first quarter was weaker than most had anticipated, this was partly the result of temporary factors that will fade. Nonetheless, while the... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate hikes a long way off despite improving labour market The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.50% when it meets on Tuesday 4 th July. And while the sustained improvement in the labour market in recent... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly All Blacks to beat British Lions in economic tests If the relative performance of the economies of New Zealand and the UK/Ireland over the next few years is anything to go by, the All Blacks will beat the British & Irish Lions 2-1 in the rugby test... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q1) The first quarter of this year will probably go down in history as the point at which house price inflation peaked. Policymakers have engineered the slowdown that appears to be underway, but there’s... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price hikes pile more pressure on households The utility bills of Australian households won’t rise by as much as the eye-watering 20% figure that has been catching the headlines as not all retailers have raised prices by that much and as prices... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The much stronger than anticipated rise in employment in May and the fall in the unemployment rate to a four-year low will go some way to quashing growing talk of the chance of another interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The weaker-than-expected rise in GDP in the first quarter means that GDP growth this year is likely to be closer to 3.0% than our previous forecast of 3.5%. While that would still be a fairly decent... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in June to its lowest level since April 2016 will add to growing concerns about the outlook for consumer spending. On past form... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households getting a smaller share of the pie The share of the national income going to Australian households is at an eight-year low and is within a whisker of a 50-year low. What’s more, households in Australia currently get a smaller share of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) The plunge in the international trade surplus to a six-month low of $0.6bn in April won’t last long as it was almost entirely due to the fall in coal exports caused by Cyclone Debbie, most of which... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reports of a new GDP record are fake news Contrary to what you may have heard, the rise in GDP in the first quarter does not mean that Australia now holds the record for the longest period in modern history without a recession. It’s true that... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The small 0.3% q/q rise in GDP in the first quarter won’t worry the RBA too much as some of it was due to the temporary influence of the severe weather. Nonetheless, we believe that GDP growth will be... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA willing to ignore the weak economy Even though the economy may have contracted in the first quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates at 1.5% today and retained its optimistic view on the economic outlook. We suspect... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
