Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence edged up in September, but it remains low by historical standards and is consistent with a slowdown in the annual rate of consumption growth from 2.6%... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households looking increasingly fragile The slump in real income growth has forced Australian households to reduce their saving rate to a nine-year low in order to continue increasing their spending. This can’t continue indefinitely... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Jul.) The stagnation in retail sales and the fall in the international trade surplus in July suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter will be weaker than the second-quarter’s 0.8%. With households’... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2) The 0.8% q/q rise in GDP in the second quarter overstates the health of the economy as it needs to be taken in context of the weak first quarter. The underlying rate of growth is probably more like 0... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA is stuck in neutral The Reserve Bank of Australia has now left interest rates at 1.5% for 13 months and we suspect the combination of subdued GDP growth, low inflation and a growing focus on financial stability will mean... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s going on with mining? One recent data release showed that mining investment in Australia is still plunging while another suggested it has started to rebound. Both are technically right, as it all depends on how you measure... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q2) The private capital expenditure survey for the second quarter suggests that the recent rises in business confidence may soon translate into a bit more investment. A decent rise in business investment... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch GDP growth to fall short of RBA’s lofty expectations While we agree with the assessment of the financial markets that there is next to no chance of an interest rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday 5 th September, we... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bouncing back It looks as though both Australia and New Zealand shook off the weakness at the start of the year as GDP growth may have bounced back in the second quarter. We estimate that the disappointing 0.3% q/q... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) The recent run of chunky rises in employment is helping to cushion the blow to households’ finances from record low wage growth. The past volatility of the data suggests it’s wise not to get too... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) The stagnation in wage growth at the record low of 1.9% in the second quarter supports our view that the low wage, low inflation climate will mean the RBA won’t raise interest rates next year as the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The new long-term inflation trend History may be turned on its head over the next decade with Australia and New Zealand experiencing lower inflation rates than some of their peers. It follows that their exchange rates may be weaker... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Business bonanza? The surge in business confidence in Australia has made us a little more upbeat on the outlook for business investment. But with households showing some signs of struggling, a bit more investment won’t... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The fall in consumer confidence to a 16-month low in August widens the disparity between glum households and gleeful businesses. With confidence at a level consistent with a slowdown in consumption... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
