Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal update offers no Christmas gift for the economy The only gift the Treasurer handed out in today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) was the one he gave himself, namely a stronger fiscal pot that will take a bit away from GDP growth next... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer to save MYEFO windfall for future tax cuts We expect the Treasurer will use his recent windfall of up to $10bn to emphasize in Monday’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook that he is on track to generate a budget surplus in 2020/21 and also... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) Another month of extraordinarily strong jobs growth in November leaves little doubt about the current health of the labour market. That said, there is still plenty of spare capacity which will... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The leap in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in December will be a welcome sight for retailers in the middle of the all-important Christmas shopping period. Nonetheless, with household... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q3) For anyone in doubt, the weakening in house prices in the third quarter all but confirms that Australia’s housing boom is over. And more up-to-date indicators suggest that prices fell further in the... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will population growth save the housing market? Australia’s rapid rate of population growth doesn’t mean that house prices will always rise as population is not the most important determinant of demand over short periods of time. In any case, it’s... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses step up while households go on strike The recent shift in the composition of GDP growth in Australia has important consequences for the outlook for next year. While businesses will support growth by more than in any year since 2012... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct.) Australia has managed to notch up 12 consecutive months of an international trade surplus, but only just as the surplus slumped from $1.6bn in September to $0.1bn in October. The pollution controls in... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The performance of the economy in 2018 will largely come down to whether stronger business investment can continue to compensate for weaker dwellings investment and consumption, as it did in the third... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may not get its Christmas wish The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t say as much in the statement released after it left interest rates at 1.5% for the 16th month today, but its Christmas wish must surely be for much more economic... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct.) & GDP Partials (Q3) Today’s data releases suggest that GDP in the third quarter may have risen by just 0.2% q/q, but at least the 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales values suggests the fourth quarter may be a bit better. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the fall in spare capacity mean for wages? While the notable strengthening in the Australian labour market this year has led to some reduction in the high levels of existing spare capacity, wage growth has remained around record lows. And the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The third quarter private capital expenditure survey was better than expected, with the larger than normal upward revision to firms’ investment plans supporting our view that the outlook for business... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia losing its interest rate premium The narrowing in Australia’s interest rate premium highlighted by the rise in two-year government bond yields in the US in line with two-year yields in Australia for the first time in almost 20 years... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe signalling that rates unlikely to rise next year Recent comments by Governor Lowe about the outlook for monetary policy all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at its final policy meeting of the year on... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will there be any reprieve for retailers this Christmas? While the sustained pick-up in employment growth so far this year provides some reason for optimism about consumer spending in the all-important Christmas period, on balance the evidence suggests that... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
