Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr.) After stalling in March, the stronger than anticipated rise in retail sales in April was welcome news. Nevertheless, with household budgets still under pressure, we continue to expect consumption... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much support will non-mining investment provide? While the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia is fairly encouraging, we aren’t expecting an appreciable pick-up in total private investment growth. That’s largely because the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) House prices fell at a faster rate in May and the recent slump in the number of properties sold relative to the number listed suggests that prices may soon be falling by about 5% a year. And that’s... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q1) While the headline figures in the first-quarter private capital expenditure survey were only a little weaker than most had anticipated, the news on non-mining investment was particularly disappointing... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Royal Commission contributes to RBA inactivity The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 5 th June and with the outlook for inflation subdued and the Royal Commission... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A $100 oil price would not be a disaster We still believe that the oil price is more likely to fall from US$80 per barrel to US$65 rather than rise to US$100 as some have suggested. But even if it did hit US$100, inflation in Australia... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Royal Commission presents a risk to growth While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems likely that the Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial sector will lead to a tightening in credit conditions in Australia. A notable... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where to look for tighter credit conditions Credit conditions in Australia will surely tighten further as a result of the Royal Commission investigation into misconduct in the financial sector, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) Following outright falls in employment in February and March, the pace of job creation returned to a more normal rate in April. But even if this pace is sustained, we expect wage growth to remain... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) With wage growth stuck in the mud at 2.1% in the first quarter and likely to stay there or thereabouts for a while yet, the prospect of an interest rate rise next year has diminished further. It also... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income tax cuts not a game changer for consumption The income tax cuts announced in this week’s 2018/19 Federal Budget are not enough to prevent consumption growth in Australia from slowing this year, especially given taxpayers won’t see the bulk of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget response: Asking too much of the economy While the good performance of the economy has allowed Treasurer Scott Morrison to cut income taxes and project a return to a budget surplus one year ahead of schedule in the last Budget before next... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) The sharper than anticipated easing in real retail sales growth in the first quarter points to a notable slowdown in real consumption growth last quarter. Moreover, the stagnation in nominal retail... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget preview: Electioneering outdoes fiscal restraint While the income tax cuts that the Australian Treasurer is planning to announce in Tuesday’s Federal Budget will provide a small boost to the economy over the next couple of years, we doubt they will... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still ruling out a near-term rate hike The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Statement on Monetary Policy provided a clearer sign that the RBA has moved on from wondering if interest rates need to rise to considering when they will rise. But the... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Mar.) While most of the other major economies have slowed in the first quarter, March’s international trade and building approvals figures suggest that the Australian economy strengthened markedly. 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
