Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The rebound in retail sales in August provides further evidence that households are still proving reasonably resilient to low income growth and falling house prices. But with house prices falling at... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The small rise in the international trade surplus in August provides more evidence that the US-China trade war is not affecting Australia’s external sector. In fact, the recent weakening in the... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Economy unlikely to live up to RBA’s expectations The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a bit more confident in its economic outlook when it decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5% for the 26th month today. But we still think that GDP... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The largest monthly fall in house prices since the global financial crisis underlines that the current downturn may well prove to be the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern history. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget deficit, Royal Commission and election risk The shrinking budget deficit gives the Coalition government a bit more fiscal ammunition to deploy ahead of Australia’s next Federal election, while there is no way of knowing at this stage how the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates may not rise until late in 2020 Although the Reserve Bank of Australia will note the strength of the recent news on the domestic economy while leaving interest rates at 1.50% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd October, it’s unlikely to... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our new forecasts and the RBA’s trade war fears After revamping all our forecasts, we have concluded that the RBA and the RBNZ probably won’t raise interest rates until late in 2020 and late in 2021 respectively. That explains why we now expect the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Our new interest rate & Australian dollar forecasts Our new forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from the record low of 1.5% until late in 2020 compares to the consensus view that lift-off will take place late next... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Conditions for higher wages (slowly) falling into place This week the Australian economy took one more step towards meeting the conditions that would require higher interest rates, but it may be another 12-18 months at the least before the RBA has enough... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The labour market is edging closer to the conditions that are necessary to trigger faster wage growth, but it may be another couple of years yet before it gets there. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Boost to GDP from private investment unlikely to last The bulk of the recent leap in GDP growth has been driven by the behaviour of businesses, but firms probably won’t be able to support growth for long. An easing in private investment growth is one... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surging GDP, stationary RBA The recent stellar performance of the Australian economy hasn’t made it much more likely that the RBA will raise interest rates sooner because it is businesses that are benefiting most not households... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) It looks as though the contribution to real GDP growth in the third quarter from net exports will be similar to the 0.1 percentage point added in the second quarter. But the near-stagnation in imports... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q2) The surge in GDP growth in the first half of the year meant that the Australian economy notched up 27 years without a recession in style. But with house prices falling, credit conditions tightening... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA glosses over weaker economic news The upbeat tone of the comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia after it left interest rates at the record low of 1.5% for the 25th month today is starting to grate more obviously with the incoming... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
