Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA not ready to cut The financial markets are now pricing in a small chance of a rate cut by the RBA next year following the release of weak GDP data this week. But while we expect GDP growth to slow further next year... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) Household spending isn’t falling off a cliff just yet but we still think that the downturn in the housing market will restrain consumption growth before long. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) It would be tempting to blame the slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter on temporary factors. But we believe that the full effects of falling house prices and tighter credit conditions haven’t... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cautious RBA may only hike rates in late-2020 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a little more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% for the 28th month. That supports our view that rates will not rise until late in 2020... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) We suspect the decline in house prices in the eight capital cities is going to continue and house prices will go on to eventually fall by at least 12%. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget surplus, looser lending restrictions The rapid decline in the budget deficit suggests that the Government may announce higher spending or tax cuts in next year’s Budget. And Labor has pledged to eliminate a number of tax privileges if it... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The fall in private capital expenditure wasn’t as bad as the headline suggests but a slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter will be hard to avoid. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Slumping oil prices another headache for RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold rates steady at next week’s meeting and signal that the first hike is still some way off. With the downturn in the housing market continuing unabated and... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Immigration curbs & recession risks Immigration has been very strong in New Zealand in recent years but we think it will slow sharply over the next couple of years. By contrast, we don’t think that the Australian government will... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA can hike while Fed cuts Australia’s economy has become less sensitive to conditions in the US as their trade links have diminished. The upshot is that the RBA should be able to hike interest rates in 2020 even if our... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tosh analysis & good news from labour market The Australian Labor Party’s fiscal proposals may not be quite as restrictive as we had thought. But we still believe that fiscal policy would be tighter if Labor wins the next Federal election... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The unemployment rate remained at a six-year low in October and will probably fall a little further over coming months. However, we still think that wage growth will only pick up slowly and the RBA... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q3) The increase in annual wage growth from 2.1% in Q2 to 2.3% in Q3 is nothing to get excited about as it was partly driven by an increase in the minimum wage. What’s more, subdued growth in real wages... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Labor’s fiscal plans would strengthen case for low rates We estimate that Labor’s plans to tighten fiscal policy would dampen consumer spending by around 0.3 percentage points in both 2019 and 2020, shaving 0.2 percentage points off GDP in each of those... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks getting more confident Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand displayed a little more confidence in their optimistic forecasts when they left interest rates unchanged this week. We think that... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
