Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn will force RBA to cut rates We think that 2019 will be the year in which previous excesses in Australia’s housing market will catch up with the economy. We believe that the deepening housing downturn will become a far bigger... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Oil, housing and the labour market While the recent falls in oil prices may boost consumer spending, they render investment in new LNG projects less attractive and may therefore restrain mining investment. Meanwhile, the slump in... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) While the solid rise in retail sales values in November suggests that households are still coping well with falling house prices and sluggish incomes gains, we think that consumption growth will slow... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Spending boost from lower petrol prices won’t last The recent declines in petrol prices may boost consumer spending by around 0.6 percentage points in the first half of 2019. But we suspect that this impact won’t be enough to prevent consumption... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The trade surplus will probably rebound in December but will expect net trade will make a negative contribution to Q4 GDP growth. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar set to weaken further We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House prices fell the most in December since the current downturn started and a further deterioration in the balance between supply and demand suggests that prices in Melbourne and Sydney will keep... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Getting banks to lend again We doubt that the phasing-out of caps on interest-only loans will provide much support to the housing market as there’s still a large imbalance between supply and demand. And the government won’t... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The solid rise in employment in November will give the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed confidence inits optimistic forecasts following the disappointing Q3 GDP data. But labour market slack is... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Government only offers Christmas crumbs The Coalition Government indicated in today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook that it will present some sweeteners ahead of the upcoming election. Even so, fiscal policy will become more... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook improving, housing outlook bleak The rapid improvement in the budget deficit will allow the government to use the upcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook to deliver some early Christmas presents. But the Treasurer will probably... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Record housing downturns in Sydney and Melbourne We estimate that house prices in Sydney will eventually decline by 20% from their peak and by 17% in Melbourne. This would make the downturn in each city the largest in modern history. The slowdown in... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Flatter US yield curve no big deal for Australia While the flattening of the US yield curve suggests that the US economy is likely to slow soon, it doesn’t tell us much about developments in Australia. And while we expect Australia’s yield curve to... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
