Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The solid employment gain in March doesn’t resolve the tension between weak activity and healthy labour market data. Our view is that the drag from the housing downturn will eventually win the upper... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade frictions not a major risk to economy China announced this week that its anti-dumping investigation into Australian barley imports will drag on longer than planned, fuelling tensions between the two countries further. While China’s small... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Australia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Australia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labor’s Budget alternative not so stimulatory either This week both the government and the opposition laid out their fiscal plans if they were to win the next election, with both sides promising significant income tax cuts. But given the negative... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Feb.) The strong 0.8% m/m rise in retail sales in February suggests that consumption growth may not have declined further in Q1, but we think the housing downturn will mean growth remains subdued in 2019... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget not as expansionary as it looks The Coalition government’s Budget for 2019/20 promises additional tax cuts while still achieving a budget surplus. Labor will probably win next month’s federal election and we suspect it will at least... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will soon have to cut rates The Reserve Bank of Australia sounded more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. With the full impact of the housing downturn on economic activity yet to be felt, we think the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We Expect house prices in the eight capital cities to fall by at least another 6%, though our sales-to-new-listings ratio points to smaller declines in coming months. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Balanced budget & tumbling yields The rapid improvement in the budget deficit provides the Coalition government with some scope to announce additional tax cuts or higher spending while maintaining its forecast of budget surpluses over... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA to cut rates faster and more The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the continued tightening of the labour market when it leaves rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd April. But we’ve become even... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) The fall in the unemployment rate to an eight-year low in February will give the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed confidence in its forecast that the labour market will continue to tighten. By... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
